TNAG-1529-FCO40-2093-Hong-Kong-Vietnamese-refugees-general-1986 — Page 192

HKK 243/3

RECEM Leeks. HKDC JUL 1986

/

CONFIDENTIAL

نا

References

Авла Av Basta

general)

222

2

134

I have agreed with do Wark that this is weful cryobl ball gazing, but wol of penating brand to FM. her's wird

see a bit.

VIETNAM: NEW PARTY LEADER: VIETNAMESE REFUGEES

1.

CR22/2

You will have seen reports that, since Le Duan's death on

22/2

10 July, Truong Chinh, the Vietnamese Head of State, has succeeded Le Duan as General Secretary of the Vietnamese Communist Party, ie No 1 in the Politburo, and thus primus inter pares in the collective leadership.

It occurs to me that this change could possibly have some effect on refugee questions.

2.

I

3. Firstly Truong Chinh has a reputation for ruthlessness. attach a copy of the LPR for Chinh and you will note in particular the passage concerning his prosecution of the land reform campaign in the 1950s which led him to be dismissed as Party leader then. From this, I would not expect there to be any improvement in the human rights situation in Vietnam under Truong Chinh.

4.

There is also the question of Chinh's attitude to economic reforms. There was recent speculation that further, more far- reaching reforms might be announced later this year. Many commentators are of the view that Truong Chinh, often described as an "idealogue" rather than a "pragmatist", is not likely to push for further reforms, and indeed may try to stifle the reformist movement. I would balance this by mentioning that Mr Wood, in Hanoi telno 186, reported that Chinh was a "recent convert to economic reform".

Comment

The above would appear to have possible implications for the refugee problem as follows:

5.

(a) If the human rights situation does not improve or indeed deteriorates under Truong Chinh, there may be an increase in politically motivated departures;

(b) If, as I am inclined to believe, Truong Chinh proves to be an opponent of economic reform, this is likely to mean continuing economic stagnation in Vietnam, more hardship, and therefore an increase in economically motivated departures;

(c) Repatriation. Truong Chinh's reputation suggests that the climate for repatriation of Vietnamese refugees to Vietnam is not likely to improve. Indeed, given his espousal of ruthless internal policies

in the past, the arguments against involuntary repatriation would appear to be stronger than ever.

CODE 18-77

AWO Ltd. 7/84

cc:

UND

Chancery, Hanoi

Mr Whitehead, RD

S T Nash

South East Asian Department

CONFIDENTIAL