5. Whilst data on disembarkations falling within the RASRO and DISERO schemes and DISERO-type disembarkations in Japan are considered reliable, figures within the "Others" category represent only those disembarkations known to UNHCR. The total of "Others" category rescues (Annex 4) almost certainly underestimates the real rescue efforts of small local vessels, many of which probably never came to the attention of UNHCR. Because of the incomplete nature of "Others" figures, the grand totals for 1984 and 1985 (Annexes 2 and 4) should be regarded as minimal rather than definitive; they serve as a guide to place the four categories of rescue activity into a comparative perspective.
III.
A.
DISEMBARKATIONS : 1984 AND 1985 COMPARED
RASRO
RASRO began on 1 May 1985 and it might be somewhat unfair to assess its performance after eight months. However, some assessment must be made in order for governments to decide if the scheme should continue after its trial year. The scheme will be assessed in terms of its objectives.
6.
7.
Has RASRO increased rescue ?
A glance at Annex 4 indicates that RASRO both has and has not increased rescues. It has in terms of the number of disembarkations of rescued refugees, which increased from 30 (1984) to 38 (1985) during the period 1 May - 31 December. It has not in terms of the total number of refugees rescued, which decreased slightly from 1,186 to 1,148 over the same review period.
8. The increase in disembarkations (i.e. rescues), whilst not dramatic, is an indication that ships flying flags of RASRO countries are more willing to rescue. (This does not necessarily mean that RASRO is responsible for this increase in rescue activity.) This increase in rescue activity is turned into a 3% decrease if only the number of refugees rescued is used to provide a simple comparison between years.
9. There are very clear reasons why an increase in rescue activity, following the established formula of reporting, is turned into a decrease. Firstly, there is a reduction in the number of refugees in each boat rescued by RASRO ships. Secondly, there is a reduction in the total number of boat arrivals, which indicates that fewer refugees are on the sea and therefore fewer are likely to require rescue.
10. If, for the purposes of comparing rescue activity only, these two factors are taken into account, i.e. adjusted comparison, a very different picture emerges. Had (rescued) refugee boat size remained the same in 1985 as it had been in 1984, a total of 1,482 refugees would have been rescued, i.e. an increase of 296. If this figure is further adjusted to take account of the 10% reduction in arrivals, the total becomes 1,630, i.e. an increase of 444. Expressed in percentage terms, this is a 41% increase over 1984. It is this (adjusted but unreal) 41% increase which more realistically reflects rescue activity by RASRO ships in 1984 and 1985 than the (simple but real) 3% decrease.
11.
Rescue activity has increased among ships flying flags of RASRO members. An answer to the question "Has RASRO increased rescue ?" will, however, be deferred to the conclusion.
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