Case 1
CONFIDENTIAL
Financial Analysis
Annex C.1
Two tubes opening simultaneously mid-1990 with a starting toll of $5 rising to $7 in 1994, to $10 in 1999 and $12 in 2004.
0
1991 1992 1993 1994 1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
9.0 23.9 28.3 30.8 45.5 49.8 64.4 82.3 106.3 165.7 175.2 187.6 190.2 192.7 234.3 237.4 240.5 243.5 246.6 249.7 251.9
7.4 15.6 17.9 20.4 22.2 24.2 26.5 28.1 29.8 31.6 33.5 35.5 37.6 39.9 42.3 44.8 47.5 50.4 53.4 56.6 60.0
Cashflow Forecast
1986
1987 1988 1989 1990
Toll Revenue
0
0
Operating Costs
0
0
Business Cashflow
0
0
0
0
Int't/Finance Costs 2.1
50.0
Capital Expenditure
Net Cashflow
1.6 8.3 10.4 10.4 23.3 25.6 37.9 54.2 76.5 134.1 141.7 152.1 152.6 152.8 192.0 192.6 193.0 193.1 193.2 193.1 191.9
10.3 23.8 39.3 52.4 60.5 65.7 70.6 75.4 79.9 84.2 87.6 89.5 88.1 83.7 78.1 71.5 64.3 54.7 42.5 29.1 14.6 0 0 0
127.2 157.4 142.9 75.7 13.4 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0 0
-52.1 -137.5 -181.2 -182.2 -126.5 -65.6 -55.3 -60.2 -52.1 -54.3 -46.3 -33.4 -13.0 46.0 58.0 74.0 81.1 88.5 137.3 150.1 163.9 178.5 193.2 193.1 191.9
Cashflow to 2010 discounted at 10% yields an NPV of minus $490m.
Case 2
One tube opening mid-1990 and the other opening mid-1995 with a starting toll of $5 rising to $7 in 1994, to $10 in 1999 and $12 in 2004.
Cashflow Forecast 1986 1987 1988
1989
Toll Revenue
0
0
Operating Costs
0
0
4.8 10.2 10.9
1990 1991 1992 1993
9.0 23.9 28.3 30.8
12.2
1994
1995 1996 1997 1998 1999 2000 2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010
45.5 49.8 64.4 82.3 106.3 165.7 175.2 187.6 190.2 192.7 234.3 237.4 240.5 243.5 246.6 249.7 251.9
13.1 23.7 26.0 27.8 29.8 31.6 33.5 35.5 37.6 39.9 42.3 44.8 47.5 50.4 53.4 56.6 60.0
Business Cashflow
0
0
Int't/Finance Costs 2.1 804 19.9
4.2 13.7 17.4
32.4 41.0 45.2 49.7
40.0 106.0 134.9 107.2 25.2 6.7 35.5
18.6 32.4 26.1 38.4 54.5 76.5 134.1 141.7 152.1 152.6 152.8 192.0 192.6 193.0 193.1 193.2 193.1 191.9
57.8
68.9 78.5 84.5 88.3 90.3 89.0 84.7 79.1 72.6 65.5 56.0 43.9 30.7 16.3 .6
82.7 103.5 33.8 9.0 0 0
Capital Expenditure
Net Cashflow
-42.1 -114.4 -154.8 -139.6 -62.0 -38.2 -67.8 -121.9 -140.0 -86.2 -55.1 -33.8 -13.8 45.1 57.0 73.0 80.0 87.3 136.0 148.7 162.3 176.8 192.6 193.1 191.9
Cashflow at 2010 discounted at 10% yields an NPV of minus $443.4m.
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