TNAG-1514-FCO40-2072-Shipping-in-Hong-Kong-1986 — Page 45

CONFIDENTIAL

Appendix

rame

Assumptions

United

War planning in the

that in the prevailing international situation the risk of war

in Europe is very low. The aim of the Government's defence policy

is to ensure that war does not occur. Deterrence has kept the

peace in Europe for the last four decades and continues to do

so, but there can be no absolute and permanent guarantee that

the United Kingdom would never be involved, directly or indirectly,

Kingdom is based on the assessment

in war, and in any case deterrence of course requires an ability

to act.

Contingency plans for tension and war are therefore

made. In that planning it is assumed that war involving the

United Kingdom and the NATO Alliance would be likely to be preceded

by a period of international tension possibly lasting weeks or

months, but that the warning period before the start of a war

in Europe could be very short. / The Government's

aims are 60 days of

days of

endurance

tension including 7 days warning time, 30

conventional war (which may or may not end

in nuclear

war), and 60 days post-war. _/

CONFIDENTIAL

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