TNAG-1498-FCO40-2056-Guangdong-nuclear-power-station-project-at-Daya-Bay-safety-c-1986 — Page 79

oil reserves are in the Middle East. Purely on the assumption of eradicating the European Community's existing nuclear programme an: replacing it with fossil fuels OPEC would be in command and the

price of oil would soar through the $30 a barrel mark. But even at the $30 a barrel level the cost of imports to the European Community would increase by £35 billion a year, simply to replace what would otherwise be provided for by our own nuclear energy.

THE WORLD SHORTAGE

The global scene shows that on the assumption that energy demand will increase by 2% per annum to meet the demands of an expanding world population and industrialisation, the proven and probable reserves of the world's oil would run out sometime between the year

2040 and 2065.

The world's gas would run out somewhere between the years 2056 and

2066 and the world's coal would run out somewhere between the years

2066 and 2076.

There is no such problem about the world supply of the cheap form of uranium (there are substantial reserves) for years to come. There

are also vast quantities of uranium which could be extracted at

higher cost. When the fast breeder reactor has been fully

developed, the amount of new uranium required will be very small.

The fast breeder reactor technology would allow the power extracted

from uranium to be raised more than 60 fold. The stocks of depleted

uranium already held in the United Kingdom could, in fast reactors, represent an energy potential approximately equal to the United

Kingdom's entire technically recoverable coal reserves. Coal and

oil-fired electricity systems have 60% of their costs represented by

the price of the fuel. In nuclear stations the cost of the uranium

is only 10% of the total cost.

The Twenty-First century is the century in which the known finite

energy resources of the world are destined to run out. Much of the

world still remains poised for industrialisation and much of the

world continues with fast expanding populations. The combination of

those two factors upon the population base of today makes the Twenty-First century the century in which energy supply will be the

great challenge.

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