TNAG-1497-FCO40-2055-Guangdong-nuclear-power-station-project-at-Daya-Bay-safety-c-1986 — Page 57

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5. * EXPECT THEREFORE THAT ANXIETY APOUT DAYA BAY WILL PERSIST

DURING THE WHOLE PERIOD OF ITS CONSTRUCTION. THE DEMAND BY PRESSURE

GROUPS THAT THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT SHOULD REPRESENT TO THE CHINESE

THAT DAYA BAY IS NOW TOO DANGEROUS A PROPOSITION FOR HONG KONG WILL

BE A RECURRING ONE. IN THE SHORT TERM, AS LONG AS THERE IS NO

ACCIDENT AT A FRENCH NUCLEAR POWER STATION THIS PRESSURE SHOULD BE

CONTAINABLE. IF SUCH AN ACCIDENT DOES OCCUR THEN PUBLIC PRESSURE

MAY WELL BECOME IRRESISTIBLE ON THE MEMBERS OF THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL TO PASS A RESOLUTION URGING HMG TO PERSUADE THE CHINESE TO

ABORT THE PLAN.

6.

THE CONCERN IS NOT ONLY EMOTIONAL. * HAVE RECENTLY HEARD OF SENIOR HONG KONG CHINESE BUSINESSMEN EXPRESSING THE VIEW THAT THE CHINESE WOULD BE WISE NOT TO PROCEED WITH DAYA BAY BECAUSE IT WILL DETER FOREIGN BUSINESS FROM COMING HERE. SIR S. Y. CHUNG TOLD ME THAT HE DID NOT EXCLUDE REPRESENTATIONS BEING MADE TO THE ADMINISTRATION ON THE LINES THAT PEOPLE IN HONG KONG WOULD PREFER TO PAY THE CHINESE A FEW CENTS MORE FOR THE ELECTRICITY IN ORDER TO SEE DAYA BAY CONVERTED TO A THERMAL PLANT RATHER THAN TAKE THE RISK INVOLVED IN THE OPERATION OF A NUCLEAR REACTOR THERE.

7. THESE ARE THE SHORT TERM RISKS. ALSO FORESEE A DANGEROUS PISE AN ANXIETY IN THE EARLY 1990S WHEN THE TIME COMES TO COMMISSION THE PLANT. THIS WILL COME AT A MOST UNFORTUNATE TIME BECAUSE THAT IS ALSO THE PERIOD WHEN ANXIETY ABOUT THE TRANSITION WILL BEGIN

TO REACH ITS PEAK.

8.

TO SUM UP CHERNOBYL HAS CHANGED THE NUCLEAR PICTURE. THERE WOULD NOW BE AN IMMENSE SIGH OF RELIEF IN HONG KONG IF THE CHINESE DECIDED TO MAKE DAYA BAY A THERMAL INSTEAD OF A NUCLEAR PROJECT. OF THEY DO NOT, THE RISK OF AN ACCIDENT IN A FRENCH-TYPE REACTOR ENGENDERING STRONG POLITICAL PRESSURES IN HONG KONG FOR HMG TO PERSUADE THE CHINESE TO CALL A HALT WILL REMAIN A SERIOUS ONE. EVEN IF THE CONSTRUCTION PERIOD IS SAFELY NEGOTIATED THERE WILL INEVITABLY BE A SIGNIFICANT RECRUDESCENCE OF ANXIETY AT THE TIME THE PLANT #S. COMMISSIONED, WITH A CONSEQUENT IMPACT ON CONFIDENCE.

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