CONFIDENTIAL
South Africa
The Secretary of State said that he had had some contacts with the COMGEP over recent days. Monsieur Raimond said that he would be seeing Messrs Frazer and Obasanjo the following day. The Secretary of State said that we had moved rapidly from a situation where there had appeared to be some hope to one where progress looked much less likely. The South Africans had done very little to help themselves, and appeared to be retiring to a world very remote from our own. The prospects did not look good, though it was too early to say that the Group's work was at an end. Tension was likely to rise with the 10th Anniversary of Soweto. COMGEP's report, which would be available later.
this week, would be critical.
Commonwealth Heads of Government were not due to meet until early August, though there could be demands for earlier consideration of the report. We would try to achieve reasonable, calm discussion, but there would be pressure for further economic measures against South Africa. In our view, the South Africans could hold out for a long time. Dialogue remained necessary. We could do more to help this process if we were not locked into a series of futile and negative measures directed against the South African Government, measures which would incidentally do much harm to the front-line states. But if any economic measures were to be taken they would only have any effect if they were taken by all the industrial countries together. The industrial countries should reflect with extreme care before considering further measures. We should keep in close touch on this. We were very interested in the French position, on which co-habitation provided opportunities for speculation.
Monsieur Raimond said that the French had sent back their Ambassador, and President Mitterand had been fully in agreement with this. He had himself recently told the francophone African Ambassadors that there was no change in the French position which was in opposition to mandatory sanctions, but not opposed to voluntary sanctions. But the French internal position was not and they would have problems if there were serious developments. He agreed that we should keep in close touch, particularly as there was some difference on this point between the positions of the two countries.
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Mr Thomas suggested that a meeting of experts might be useful. Monsieur Raimond agreed, but repeated that the French Government position was not easy and was very nuancé. The Secretary of State said we should take it in slow time; we did not want premature demands for reconsideration of the Luxembourg Accord etc.
CONFIDENTIAL
/South-West Pacific
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