TNAG-1483-FCO40-2037-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1986 — Page 182

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estimate of 16.7%. The comparative figure for 1985-86

was 16.3%. The trend is steady. The public sector's

share of the output of the building and construction

sector is expected to be 32%, lower than the 35%

recorded in 1985.

38.

A visible trade deficit of $390 million is

forecast for 1986, a near balance situation given the

size of

of the overall trade flows. In 1985 a visible

trade surplus of $2.5 billion, equivalent to 1.1% of

the value of total imports, was recorded. Further,

reflecting a deterioration in the terms of trade in

1986, real income is expected to grow by about 4%,

slightly less than the revised growth rate of the GDP.

1

39.

Looking ahead to 1987, the growth rate of

the Hong Kong economy will remain heavily dependent on

external factors. Apart from the level of consumer

demand in our export markets, our continued access to

these markets is also an important factor. Any

further intensification of protectionist measures,

particularly in the United States, will affect the

prospects for Hong Kong's exports and for world trade

generally.

/40.

So to conclude