CONFIDENTIAL
8. Does this mean that there is no opposition to the economic reform programme? It does not. It is fairly clear, I think, that there are three groups who dislike the programme. They are unreconstructed Maoists; people who favour rapid modern- isation, but who would like to stick closer to the model of
the Soviet-inspired first Five Year Plan (1953-1957); and people who are being made redundant because of their lack of education or technical skills. But I do not myself see any likelihood of the three groups combining to form an effective
coalition; and, in the absence of such a coalition, I do not
see the reform programme itself being at risk, either before or after the death of Deng Xiaoping. A key factor is that there is now no Mao Zedong to mobilise opposition.
9.
Problems will continue. But I do not think that the
programme itself will be abandoned. Nor, short of an economic
outside blizzard in the world, do I expect China's rate of development to falter. In making this judgement, I am in good company. A report about China by the World Bank looks forward to China's GDP per head being in the range between $670 and $840 in the year 2000, as compared with $300 in 1981 (all figures in 1981 dollars), and to an average growth rate of between 5.4% and 6.6% during the twenty year period.
10.
What, though, of China's spiritual health? The leader- ship is worried about corruption and more generally about an absence of civility in society. Measures to deal with corruption are in the pipe-line. But these will not touch the ideological vacuum which some observers believe underlies the absence of civility. Nor do I think that the leadership has a great deal to offer to fill any such vacuum. `Deng Xiaoping's ideology seems to consist of a not very closely integrated amalgam of three elements: strong patriotism; a belief that socialism is better than capitalism because it eliminates exploitation as defined by Marx; but a conviction that people work harder if the incentives they are offered are material rather than moral. this is a very long way
CONFIDENTIAL
/ from
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.