TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 90

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however could therefore be considerable and would be at the

expense of other priorities.

11 In sum the current costs of maintaining the nine

dependencies are relatively modest. These costs are however

likely to rise for the following reasons:

(i) annual costs will increase in response to rising

expectations and so as to deter any threat to stability; though unwelcome these costs should remain affordable.

(ii) major costs could be incurred in response to a

significant threat; this eventuality is unlikely but

could be very expensive.

In aggregate the costs to the UK of maintaining the dependencies

could be considerable. It is worth noting that for the US the

same costs would be relatively minor particularly for those

territories near to the US mainland (deterrence in this area is

much cheaper for them than for us). In the following sections we consider alternatives to the present arrangements.

V

POSSIBLE FORMULAE FOR CHANGE

12 The options for change outlined in the Research Department

paper (Section IV) fall into two general categories. There are

those involving continued dependence on the UK where the choice lies between maintaining the present dependent status and going

for integration; and there are those involving a loosening of the

ties with the UK where the choice is between transferring

ownership to another country, opting for a different type of

dependent status with the UK, arranging for increased dependence

on another regional power, on the UN or on a regional grouping,

promoting complete independence, and (as an extreme measure) abandonment. The international climate of opinion on

decolonisation issues is, as has been noted (para 2.2.

relaxed. But it still assumes that the ultimate destiny of small

territories is independence and opposition would probably be roused if it became clear that there had been a major change of

course by HMG. The goal of independence has been at the heart of

HMG's post war policies, even if movement towards it is now very

4),

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