TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 63

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power in the region to participate in any actual defence arrangement

was also considered. Continuing UK defence commitments could

seriously undermine the assumed benefits to the UK of granting independence, but in most cases continued inducements to become

independent are unlikely in the long run to outweigh the 'extra

cost' of maintaining the status quo (but see below). Since the 1973 Review, the main changes in relation to this option are that, on the

one hand, more independent States have emerged with very small

populations, eg. Tuvalu: 7,500; (both Anguilla and Turks and Caicos

have populations of around 7,000). On the other hand, events in the

Falklands and Grenada have focused attention on the problem of

security for both small states and dependent territories.

Preparedness for independence is also a crucial consideration.

all the (populated) territories there is little if any internal pressure for independence. In the absence of this, appreciation of

the benefits of independence (to the territory) would have to be

stimulated by HMG and backed up by generous independence aid

settlements if independence is regarded as a serious option by HMG .

A

In

10. Of the 12 dependent territories under review, separate

independence is a realistic option only for Bermuda and possibly the

Caribbean territories Anguilla (7,000), British Virgin Islands

(12,000), Cayman Islands (19,000), Montserrat (12,000) and Turks and

Caicos Islands (7,000). These territories have been classified by

the review (1973) as ones which in principle could cease to be

dependent territories in due course. Moreover, their size is not an

insuperable obstacle. The problems of small and micro-states in the

modern world are real, but the lack of substantial population has

not in itself prevented small States from achieving independence (eg

Tuvalu 7,500) and a lack of economic resources has not always been

regarded as a bar to independence (Malawi) where it has been

sought.

Mode

11. In the short term, the most likely candidate for independence is

Bermuda which has achieved financial security and already has an advanced constitution and a ministerial form of government. A Bill

providing for a referendum on independence to be held not later than

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