TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 26

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CONFIDENTIAL

It

But

33 This is essentially a question of political judgement. of these options we believe that the first is likely at best to perpetrate the existing situation of drift; that the second will give rise to political opposition locally, in the UK and, for the reasons noted in para 22 above, also from the US. The third option would seem best. It would serve both to increase the pressure on the territories to move to independence while maintaining the maximum degree of cooperation with them. might be said that the third option is already UK policy. Independence is indeed our present aim. But in practice the approach in recent years has been much closer to the first option. Selecting the third option would therefore mark a shift away from the policy of responding to the uninfluenced wishes of the inhabitants towards that of seeking to influence them in the direction of what we regard as their best interests in the light of HMG's own capabilities and interests (see paras 3 and 4 of Research Department paper on "interests" and "wishes").

34 Paras 20-33 have dealt in general terms with the programme of action necessary in the six dependencies to achieve

independence. Annex D covers in more detail how such a programme

might be applied to each individual territory. As the Annex shows independence should be achievable for Bermuda within five years, and for the rest by the year 2000.

VII FINANCIAL IMPLICATIONS FOR HMG

35 No detailed costing of the measures recommended above has

been made and this will need to await the full involvement of the

Development Division in Bridgetown. But at this stage we believe

that the approach recommended should not rule itself out on

grounds of cost. In Bermuda and the Cayman Islands no new HMG

funded capital projects are envisaged and in these territories

the main costs will be in providing for the type of technical assistance programme mentioned in para 29. By its nature this is

not unduly expensive. In Anguilla the capital spending already

written into the aid programme will probably suffice though

again technical assistance may need to be offered. Additional

capital expenditure may however be needed in the TCI, Montserrat

and BVI. The next stage is therefore to undertake a detailed

CONFIDENTIAL