TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 20

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motivating the populations to accept evolution and providing appropriate constitutional and administrative structures

for progress towards independence

These are considered in turn.

Possible Alternatives to the Provision of Defence by HMG

21 Assuming that one of the aims of HMG after independence will be to shed responsibilities for defence, the need here is to find an alternative regional power (or powers) prepared to be more closely involved in providing for their security against external threat or internal subversion. In practice this will mean getting them involved beforehand. The choice of possible regional powers is limited. In the Caribbean and Bermuda the US clearly provides the general security environment. This embraces the UK dependent territories. Responsibility for meeting any specific threat still lies however with HMG, though we can probably rely on some US involvement depending on the circumstances (vide the response to the drugs threat in TCI).

The US seems to be the only real candidate for the future.

Canada has shown a close interest in the affairs of the Eastern

Caribbean islands and has extended aid, most notably to TCI.

They might be willing to do more but their help seems likely to

be solely economic. Neither the French nor the Dutch would show much enthusiasm for picking up burdens the UK was laying down.

Other individual Caribbean states such as Jamaica, Trinidad,

Barbados and the Bahamas, or collectives such as the Caribbean Community and the Organisation of American States, could not

contribute much militarily by themselves, though cooperation with

and through them will be one of the most effective ways for the

US (and the UK) to provide a security umbrella.

22 Up to now it has suited the US that the UK has been locked

into a security role in the region. This is not so much for the

great military resources that we are able to bring to bear or are

likely to be called upon to muster. The reasons are political: to have another ally potentially, if not actually, actively

involved in protecting Western interests in the region. The US

will be reluctant to see the UK shed its security role fully and

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