TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 18

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politically, and even if it did not lead to the creation of formal links, it would still ease the path to independence.

17 Different considerations apply to the four remaining Atlantic and Pacific territories (St Helena, Tristan da Cunha, Ascension and Pitcairn). There is no pressure for independence from the first two Atlantic territories, and Ascension has no indigenous population anyway it merely houses user employees. The prospects of a reasonably viable independent existence for St. Helena and Tristan are, politically and economically, slim. This

is not a part of the world which it would be wise for HMG to be

open to the accusation of imposing a new constitutional status on the populations contrary to their wishes. In the case of St Helena, the weak state of the economy is the main difficulty.

Aid is already running at a high annual level (about £10 million

per annum) and, given the structure of the local economy,

is little likelihood of sufficient development to make

independence seem credible. Evacuation would be a theoretical

option, but the islanders give no sign of wanting to move. The

Tristan economy is self-supporting (though crucially dependent on

one fickle commodity lobsters) and in theory therefore the

there

island is more susceptible to alternative constitutional

arrangements. In practice its small size and the risk of sending

unhelpful signals to the Argentines mean that we are more or less

bound by the status quo for the moment. In Ascension, there are

strong defence and political arguments, connected with the

Falklands bridge, militating against any evolution from its

present status.

18 The status quo or something very like it therefore seems the right option for St Helena, Tristan da Cunha and Ascension for

the foreseeable future. In the longer term if change were

thought necessary it seems likely that rather than independence

it would be in the direction of

integration with the UK

the granting of full UK citizenship (short of complete

integration) to the inhabitants of the islands

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