TNAG-1461-FCO40-1987-Future-of-the-Dependent-Territories-Hong-Kong--Gibraltar-and-1986 — Page 13

7

CONFIDENTIAL

provide a response in the event of failure to deter. Though the 1985 OD paper on the Security of Small States did not identify any immediate threat to the territories in question, such threats could arise in the future. Direct external aggression (on the Falklands model) is not very likely but cannot be ruled out, perhaps particularly in times of increased international tension. More uncertain still is the risk of the territories becoming

involved inadvertently in other regional disputes. The most

likely threats however come in one of two forms. First is the externally inspired ideological subversion on the Grenada model,

and second is the threat arising from modern international vice

rings notably drugs, gun running and financial corruption

stemming from off-shore operations (Anguilla in 1967 provides an

example). The Caribbean states, close as they are to the

American continent, are much more vulnerable to both of these

threats than those in the mid-Atlantic or South Pacific.

10 These threats require different responses. As the paper on

the security of small states argued the appropriate deterrent to

the threat of subversion lies partly in political contacts and

economic assistance, and partly in the encouragement of self help

through regional security arrangements (HMG is likely to consider

military intervention the right answer only as a final resort).

Such costs fall on normal ODA, diplomatic and MOD budgets. They

are not great, though for reasons given in para 2.1.2, and

because until now we have tended to get away with spending the

minimum necessary to maintain stability, they may rise. The same is largely true of the costs of combatting the threat posed by

drug traffic and other crime related activities.

Only in

circumstances in which preventative action has failed and a crisis occurs would major Falklands style costs arise. Such

operations should be within the UK's capability to mount though

the exact circumstances are difficult to predict in general the

problems involved increase with the distance of the territory

from the UK. The costs could however be considerable and would

be at the expense of other priorities.

-

CONFIDENTIAL