TNAG-1443-FCO40-1927-Constitutional-development-in-Hong-Kong-1986 — Page 250

CONFIDENTIAL

70448

1

WHO CRITICISE WHAT THEY SEE AS A PERPETUATION OF UNDESIRABLE

COLONIAL FEATURES IN THE PRESENT SYSTEM OF GOVERNMENT. THEY HAVE

TAKEN THE LEAD IN DEMANDING A FASTER PACE OF CONSTITUTIONAL

CHANGE AND IN PARTICULAR DIRECT ELECTIONS IN 1988. THE

PROPONENTS OF THESE IDEAS ARE AT PRESENT A MINORITY, BUT THEY ARE

A VERY VOCAL ONE WHOSE VIEWS ARE GIVEN WIDESPREAD COVERAGE IN THE

MEDIA.

31.

WE CANNOT PREDICT WITH ANY CERTAINTY HOW THE VIEWS OF THE

PEOPLE OF HONG KONG ON THE ISSUES TO BE COVERED IN THE 1987

REVIEW WILL DEVELOP. DIRECT ELECTIONS WILL BE THE MOST

CONTROVERSIAL ISSUE, AND GIVEN THE DEEP DIVISIONS THAT ALREADY

EXIST IT IS LIKELY THAT NO CLEAR CONSENSUS ON THIS SUBJECT WILL

EMERGE. IT WILL UNDOUBTEDLY BE MUCH MORE DIFFICULT THAN IN THE

PAST TO REACH A DECISION THAT WILL BE ACCEPTABLE TO THE

MAJORITY.

32.

THE SITUATION IS COMPLICATED BY THE FACT THAT THE KNOWN

CHINESE OPPOSITION TO DIRECT ELECTIONS HAS CAUSED MANY PEOPLE IN

HONG KONG TO SUPPORT THEIR INTRODUCTION IN 1988 NOT FOR THEIR OWN

SAKE, BUT AS A SYMBOL OF HONG KONG'S ABILITY TO ACQUIRE AND

RETAIN THE QUOTE HIGH DEGREE OF AUTONOMY UNQUOTE PROMISED IN THE

JOINT DECLARATION. THIS FACTOR IS SO SIGNIFICANT THAT IN THE

VIEW OF THE GOVERNOR OF HONG KONG IF SOME ELEMENT OF DIRECT

ELECTIONS IS NOT INTRODUCED IN 1988 THERE IS LIKELY TO BE AMONG

MANY PEOPLE A SUBSTANTIAL REDUCTION IN CONFIDENCE IN HONG KONG,

IN THE WILLINGNESS OF HMG TO RESIST CHINESE PRESSURE, IN THE

WILLINGNESS OF THE CHINESE TO CONCEDE TRUE AUTONOMY TO THE HONG

KONG SAR AND IN THE CREDIBILITY AND AUTHORITY OF THE HONG KONG

GOVERNMENT. FOR OTHERS IN HONG KONG, HOWEVER, CHINESE OPPOSITION

TO DIRECT ELECTIONS WILL CAUSE THEM TO TURN AGAINST THEIR

INTRODUCTION EVEN IF THEY MIGHT OTHERWISE HAVE BEEN MODERATELY IN

FAVOUR. THE RESULT IS INCREASING POLARISATION. THE

INTRODUCTION OF DIRECT ELECTIONS WOULD INCREASE NERVOUSNESS AMONG

THE BUSINESS COMMUNITY.

ENDS

REMAINDER OF TEXT OF REVISED DRAFT PAPER FOLLOWS IN MIFT.

5

CONFIDENTIAL

|MOWE