TNAG-1443-FCO40-1927-Constitutional-development-in-Hong-Kong-1986 — Page 235

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31.

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We cannot predict with any certainty how the views of the

people of Hong Kong on the issues to be covered in the 1987 review

will develop. Direct elections will be the most controversial

issue, and given the deep divisions that already exist it is likely

that no clear consensus on this subject will emerge.

It will

undoubtedly be much more difficult than in the past to reach a decision that will be acceptable to the majority.

32.

The situation is complicated by the fact that the known Chinese opposition to direct elections has caused many people in

Hong Kong to support their introduction in 1988 not for their own

sake, but as a symbol of Hong Kong's ability to acquire and retain

the "high degree of autonomy" promised in the Joint Declaration.

This factor is so significant that in the view of the Governor of

Hong Kong if some element of direct elections is not introduced in 1988 there is likely to be among many people a substantial reduction in confidence in Hong Kong in the willingness of HMG to

HMG to resist

Chinese pressure, in the willingness of the Chinese to concede true

autonomy to the Hong Kong SAR and in the credibility and authority

of the Hong Kong Government. For others in Hong Kong, however,

Chinese opposition to direct elections will cause them to turn

against their introduction even if they might otherwise have been moderately in favour. The result is increasing polarisation.

33.

The two exercises underway in 1987, namely the 1987 review

and the drafting of the Basic Law, essentially involve parallel

consultation of the same people on the same issues. It should, at

least in theory, be possible for the two sides to arrive at the same

conclusion. This is one of the main objects of the informal

dialogue that we have established with the Chinese.

But in

practice, given the increasing polarisation of opinion in Hong Kong

and the sensivity and innate conservatism of the Chinese, it is

likely to prove very difficult. We have made some progress, and our

succesS in establishing the informal dialogue provides the means to make more. But time is short and the gap between us still large.

The problem of direct elections, and how to deal with them in the

1987 review, will be at the same time the most difficult and the

most important issue in

relations over the next 12

Sino-British

months.

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