CONFIDENTIAL
assurances on the treatment of those concerned.
(c) Training
We explore methods
camps in Hong Kong.
of improving training facilities in the
SEAD and UND agree.
BACKGROUND
д
✓
3.
Geneva, sets
The attached paper, agreed with SEAD, UND, Hong Kong and/UKMis
out factually the situation, predicts how it is likely
to develop if matters are left as they are, and examines all the
options of which we have been able to think, setting out their
advantages and disadvantages.
4.
The general prognosis (paras 12-13) is that unless there is
successful action to contain the problem, the situation is likely to
deteriorate. On reasonable assumptions it could deteriorate quite
rapidly between now and 1988. We could eventually face rioting in
the camps: such a situation, besides creating difficult security
problems and much human misery, would certainly result in widespread
criticism or condemnation of HMG.
For these reasons a policy of
inaction at
at this stage seems neither viable nor sensible.
5.
On the other hand there are no easy options, nor can we say
with any certainty that any of the courses of action which have been
identified will be successful in containing
the problem. A full
solution to the problem would require, first and foremost, success
in increasing the rate of departures both to the UK and to other
countries. We must also try to decrease the rate of arrivals. The
latter is more difficult,
danger that a better
refugee arrivals.
but if it cannot be achieved there is some
resettlement
rate
will
actually stimulate
more
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