TNAG-1425-FCO40-1908-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-general-1985 — Page 241

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to

in resettlement offers than other places of first asylum appears be simply that other countries consider that the UK, as the metropolitan power, should take the lead in accepting a further quota from Hong Kong. Evidence of this is set out in the attached

extract from the Memorandum which we submitted in October 1984 to SCORRI (Annex B), and explicitly in the US and Australia submissions to SCORRI. Similar remarks have been made by US, Australian and UNHCR officials on several occasions in Geneva.

V PROGNOSIS

12.

for

calculation.

c). But this is

The 39% reduction

less than the 53% reduction in 1983.

now receiving

a hard

core of

as

no

In 1984 Hong Kong's refugee arrivals and departures decreased by 39% and 12% respectively from the 1983 levels. I f these rates

were to continue over the next few years, Hong Kong's refugee population would fall to around 6000 by the end of 1988, and dwindle to virtually nothing by

by 1993 (Table II 1 Annex

probably not a realistic basis

in the arrival rate in 1984 was

Hong Kong believe that they are determined Vietnamese emigrants who have no faith in the Orderly Departure Programme and who regard the closed centres discouragement. Moreover the Embassy in Hanoi expect food shortages in Vietnam this year, and also that illegal emigration will increase as a result of repressive punishment meted out by the Vietnamese

Supreme Court. Hong Kong therefore think it more likely that the decrease in arrivals will be at best in keeping with the regional decrease (which is itself slowing down; it was 11% in 1984).

On this basis, Hong Kong's

Kong's refugee population could be

expected to decline to around 8,700 by the end of 1988, provided

that resettlement levels did not decrease any faster than in 1984

(Table II 2). However if resettlement levels were to fall off more sharply than this, and there is evidence that they will, there would be a slight increase in the refugee population, to just over 13,000 by 1988 (Table II 4).

rate of

13. Hong Kong has shown

shown that

that it can provide for refugees on a long term basis, in co-operation with UNHCR and the voluntary agencies. But the prospect of 8,000 to 13,000 still in Hong Kong in 1988, and

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