TNAG-1423-FCO40-1906-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-general-1985 — Page 98

UNHCR in October 1984.

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V

PROGNOSIS

10. In 1984 Hong Kong's refugee arrivals and departures decreased by 39% and 12% respectively from the 1983 levels. If these rates

were to continue over the next few years, Hong Kong's refugee population would fall to around 6000 by the end of 1988, and dwindle

(Table 1) to virtually nothing by 1993. But the Hong Kong Government do not

for calculation. The 39% was less than the

compared with a 50% reduction

are now receiving a hard core

On

consider this to be a a realistic basis reduction in the arrival rate in 1984

in 1983. Hong Kong believes that they of determined Vietnamese emigrants who have no faith in the Orderly Departure Programme and who regard the closed centres as no discouragement. They therefore think it more likely that the rate of decrease in arrivals will be in keeping with the regional decrease (which is itself slowing down; it was 17% in 1984). this basis, Hong Kong's refugee population could be expected to decline to around 8,700 by the end of 1988, provided that resettlement levels did not decrease any faster than in 1984 (table 2). However if resettlement levels were to fall off more sharply than this, as Hong Kong expect them to, there would be a slight increase in the refugee population, to just over 13,000 by 1988 (table 4).

11.

ม

Hong Kong has shown that it

shown that it can provide for refugees on a long term basis, in cooperation with UNHCR and the voluntary agencies. But the prospect of 8,000 to 13,000 still in Hong Kong in 1988, and for who knows how long thereafter is profoundly worrying for the following reasons:

(a). As the length of stay in camps, particularly closed camps, increases and the prospects for resettlement for most refugees remain poor or worsen, despair may set in and give rise to disturbances of which we have already had a foretaste (para 6(a)

Hunger above). Food strikes may give way to riots.

(b)

The Hong Kong Government and HMG could face strong humanitarion lobbying, especially if there are outbreaks of violence.

CONFIDENTIAL