TNAG-1423-FCO40-1906-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-general-1985 — Page 68

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(TABLE 2). HOWEVER IF RESETTLEMENT LEVELS WERE TO FALL OFF MORE SHARPLY THAN THIS, AND THERE IS EVIDENCE THAT THEY WILL, THERE WOULD BE A SLIGHT INCREASE IN THE REFUGEE POPULATION, TO JUST OVER 13,000 BY 1988 (TABLE 4).

12. HONG KONG HAS SHOWN THAT IT CAN PROVIDE FOR REFUGEES ON A LONG TERM BASIS, IN COOPERATION WITH UNHCR AND THE VOLUNTARY AGENCIES. BUT THE PROSPECT OF 8,000 TO 13,000 STILL IN HONG KONG IN 1988, AND PERHAPS INDEFINITELY THEREAFTER IS PROFOUNDLY

WORRYING FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:

(A) AS THE LENGTH OF STAY IN CAMPS, PARTICULARLY CLOSED CAMPS, INCREASES AND THE PROSPECTS FOR RESETTLEMENT FOR MOST REFUGEES REMAIN POOR OR WORSEN, DESPAIR MAY SET IN AND GIVE RISE TO DISTURBANCES OF WHICH WE HAVE ALREADY HAD A FORETASTE (PARA 6(A) ABOVE). HUNGER STRIKES WILL PROBABLY GIVE WAY TO RIOTS. THERE ARE CHILDREN NOW GROWING UP IN THE CAMPS WHO WILL HAVE LIVED

THEIR WHOLE LIVES IN CONFINEMENT.

(B) THE LOCAL CHINESE POPULATION OF HONG KONG CONSIDER IT UNJUST THAT VIETNAMESE ARE ALLOWED TO REMAIN INDEFINITELY IN HONG KONG

WHILE ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS FROM CHINA ARE REPATRIATED. THEY FIND

IT DIFFICULT TO ACCEPT THAT PUBLIC MONEY SHOULD BE SPENT ON BUILDING, EQUIPPING AND RUNNING REFUGEE CENTRES RATHER THAN ON SOCIAL SERVICES AND OTHER AMENITIES FOR THE LOCAL POPULATION. (THE COST TO THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT OF PROVIDING ASYLUM FOR VIETNAMESE REFUGEES IN THE NEXT FINANCIAL YEAR WILL BE HKDLRS 103 MILLION, OF WHICH HKDLRS 22.5 MILLION WILL PROBABLY BE REIMBURSED BY UNHCR). THERE IS A GENERAL FEELING THAT HONG KONG IS BEING ASKED TO SHOULDER MORE THAN ITS FAIR SHARE OF THE VIETNAMESE REFUGEE

BURDEN.

(C) THE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT AND HMG WILL FACE STRONG HUMANITARIAN LOBBYING, ESPECIALLY IF THERE ARE OUTBREAKS OF

VIOLENCE.

(D) LEGAL QUESTIONS MAY BE RAISED ABOUT THE CLOSED CENTRE POLICY: (E) FINALLY, IT IS POSSIBLE THAT, IF THE PROBLEM CONTINUES UNSOLVED OR BECOMES MORE SERIOUS, WE MAY FACE CHINESE PRESSURE TO

SET OUR HOUSE IN ORDER BEFORE 1997.

FOR ALL THESE REASONS THERE IS A STRONG PROBABILILTY THAT

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