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CONFIDENTIAL
18.
international organisations. In this task, British Diplomatic Missions both to those organisations and to the more important member countries will have an important role to play.
36. Finally, the role of the British Government will be a delicate and demanding one. There will be a constant need to think ahead to the transition which is now only 12 years away. Hong Kong will change, particularly in its relationship with China, as that transition becomes closer. In the early 1990's there will almost certainly be a new period of doubt and anxiety. We shall by then need a firm plan for the withdrawal of the British garrison. If at that time China is still pursuing open-door policies to the outside world and continuing its economic development, that will reassure. If it is not, the transition will be the more difficult. Either way, the smooth removal of the British link will not be easy. The transitional arrangements will need to be complete well before 1997 in order to reduce the impact of that date. In the meantime, while showing no diminution of interest in or concern for the interests of the people of Hong Kong, HMG will have to trust Hong Kong with an increasing degree of autonomy because if the UK does not show faith in Hong Kong's ability to exercise that autonomy responsibly before 1997, the Chinese will have no incentive to do so afterwards, We shall have to do all we can to preserve, not only the stability, but the economic success of Hong Kong if only because that is the prime factor in securing Chinese tolerance of its special status.
37. In short, with the ratification of the Joint Declaration we shall have successfully navigated the first stage through some difficult and often stormy waters. Twelve more years of careful political, economic and social
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