TNAG-1401-FCO40-1873-Future-of-Hong-Kong-continued-participation-in-the-General-A-1985 — Page 115

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it might encourage the Soviet Union, as the only major

economic power left outside the GATT, also to apply for

accession. Soviet accession would change the whole

nature of the GATT.

There would be no logical reason

to exclude any other state trader which wished to

accede, and the Soviet Union could be expected to work

within the GATT to ensure that it became a universal

rather than a free-market body, and to promote its

politicisation, with all the familiar dangers of

"UNCTADisation"; it would risk becoming a forum for

East-West and North-South disputes at the expense of

its original functions. The GATT would probably be

increasingly abandoned by the developed countries as a

forum for discussing trade policy in favour of more

restricted fora (to which the US have in any case shown

signs of being attracted). We should certainly

continue to resist Soviet accession, and argue -

especially if they "resumed" their seat that Chinese

accession did not constitute a precedent.

In the

immediate future, it is unlikely that a Soviet

application would succeed. But we could expect

pressure from the Soviet Union to be admitted to the

GATT to increase. And given the wider political

implications of isolating the Russians in this way,

might in the long term be difficult to sustain the

it

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