TNAG-1393-FCO40-1865-Future-of-Hong-Kong-briefing-for-meetings-and-visits-1985 — Page 52

achieved without the reneval

of inflation

vizi ch

countries

bas

often

average,

accompanied recovery in the past. In Oc3 inflation was round 5 per cent in 1984, with expectations of

݂ܕ܂

-his year,

support the

The recovery in industrial countries has helped remarkable adjustment efforts of any developing countries grappling with the heavy burden of debt incurred in earlier years.

aggregate current account deficits of developing countries foll from $100 billion in 1982 to around $40 billion in 1964 and age expected to remain around $40 billion this year. The severe cutback.

in imports which many had to accept, are now being succeeded a balanced expansion of their trade.

The pace of recovery in 1984 could not be expected to be sustained

The United Kingdom assessment is similar to that of the Found

We expect economic growth in the major industrial countries: continue at around 3 per cent per year, a rate in line with long tern productivity trends. We believe that the strategy of so

finance to which the major industrial countries bave omitted

themselves provides a firm foundation for sustained growth withost

renewed inflation.

The UK economy itself is now in its fifth successive year of steady

growth. Since the trough of the recession in the first half,

1981, United Kingdom GDP has grown at an average rate of

over 3 per cent per year. The recovery has owed such to our stor in bringing down inflation in a framework of sound fiscal

monetary policies, in liberalising markets, and in enterprise. It has been a well-balanced upsving. Since 191 investment has grown twice as fast as consuzption. Domestic dem has broadly matched the growth of domestic output, so that grow has not relied excessively on exports. Throughout this p

we have

have been

been running current account surpluses, although nota

an excessive level that could

that could cause difficulties for others,

surpluses, based on

exports of North Sea Cil, have finan

corresponding capital outflow, unencumbered by any form of control. Oil is a non-renewable asset and it icarly naken

to replace its foreign carzencY earning capacity