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in

be

resettlement offers than other places

of first

in

asylum appears to

in the attached

simply that other countries consider that the UK, as the metropolitan power, should take the lead

accepting a further quota from Hong Kong. Evidence of this is set out

extract from

the Memorandum which we submitted in October 1984 to SCORRI (Annex B), and explicitly in the US and Australia submissions to SCORRI. Similar remarks have been made by US, Australian and

UNHCR officials on several occasions in Geneva.

V PROGNOSIS

12.

are

no

I n 1984 Hong Kong's refugee arrivals

refugee arrivals and departures decreased by 39% and 12% respectively from the 1983 levels.

I f these rates

were to continue over the next few years, Hong Kong's refugee population would fall to around 6000 by the end of 1988, and dwindle to virtually nothing by 1993 (Table II 1 Annex c). But this is

probably not a realistic basis for calculation. The 39% reduction

in the arrival rate in 1984 was less than the 53% reduction in 1983. Hong Kong believe that they

now receiving a hard

core of determined Vietnamese emigrants who have no faith in the Orderly Departure Programme and who regard the closed centres as discouragement. Moreover the Embassy in Hanoi

in Hanoi expect food shortages in Vietnam this year, and also that illegal emigration will increase as a result of repressive punishment meted out by the Vietnamese

Supreme Court. Hong Kong therefore think it more likely that the decrease in arrivals will be at best in keeping with the decrease (which is itself slowing down; it was 11% in

On this basis, Hong Kong's refugee population could be

expected to decline to around

8,700 by the end of 1988, provided that resettlement levels did not decrease any faster than in 1984 (Table II 2). However if resettlement levels were to fall off more sharply than this, and there is evidence that they will, there would be a slight increase in the refugee population, to just over 13,000 by 1988 (Table II 4).

rate of

regional

1984).

13.

Hong Kong has shown that it can provide for refugees on a long term basis, in co-operation with UNHCR and the voluntary agencies. the prospect of 8,000 to 13,000 still in Hong Kong in 1988, and

But

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