TNAG-1344-FCO40-1774-Despatch-from-Sir-Richard-Evans--British-Ambassador-to-China-1986 — Page 31

CONFIDENTIAL

sovereignty in 1979 before Chinese ideas were formed, we

might have been able to retain British administration.

Whether or not that view is correct, the option was never open politically. As Sir Percy Cradock pointed out in his despatch.

of 12 December, 1983, such a concession would have meant

abandoning without having tried them a whole series of what

seemed at the time defensible positions.

The Future

26. I am often asked whether China can be trusted to honour

the agreement. To answer the question entails taking two views:

about China's interests and about the character of the successors

to China's present leaders. I believe that China's interests

will militate in favour of the honouring of the agreement.

What are these interests? They are cognate with the reasons

why the Chinese leaders decided to negotiate with us (paragraph

15 above). It is a Chinese interest to warp Taiwan alongside

as smoothly and rapidly as possible. If things were to go badly

wrong in Hong Kong, either before or after 1997, the prospect

of China's doing this would be seriously damaged. It is a

Chinese interest for Hong Kong to continue to prosper, not only

because China earns upwards of a quarter of its foreign exchange from Hong Kong, but also because she needs the skills

and experience of Hong Kong for her development. If things

were to go wrong in Hong Kong, China's ambitious development

programme would be set back. It is a Chinese interest for China to be regarded as responsible and reliable member of the international community. If things were to go wrong in Hong Kong, especially after 1997, China's reputation in the

world would suffer. These interests are neither ephemeral

nor negligible. As to the character of the successors, all

that can be said for certain is that Deng Xiaoping is doing

his utmost to place people of his way of thinking in positions of power. He may not succeed in placing them everywhere. And those he has placed could quarrel among themselves after

1

CONFIDENTIAL

/ his