TNAG-1344-FCO40-1774-Despatch-from-Sir-Richard-Evans--British-Ambassador-to-China-1986 — Page 16

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that continued British administration was never open politically.

He

(e) The Future: In the final section the Ambassador's

prognostications for the future are relatively optimistic.

argues that China's interests will militate in favour of honouring the agreement, and that dramatic political change is unlikely. He believes that the next 13 years will be difficult, but urges that we should approach the Joint Liaison Group in a positive way. He

points out that we shall have to tread warily on constitutional

development in Hong Kong.

3. I confess that as an analysis of the negotiations I find the

despatch a little disappointing. It does not discuss why we entered negotiations or why we chose that particular time, or what other

options there might have been. Was is the right decision in

retrospect? It makes little attempt to deal with the complex inter-relationship between Hong Kong, Peking and London which determined our policy at various stages. I do not think it is true

to say, as the despatch does in paragraph 13, that the objective for

us was "simple": it changed at various times and probably looked

different to different parties involved. There were also wider

strategic objectives which are not mentioned, for instance our wider

relationship with China.

4. The despatch also does not ask the question (which should be

asked) whether, had we not gone for British administration in 1983

we might have found it easier to negotiate on post-1997 arrangements with the Chinese. Might the suspicion touched on in paragraph 18

have been rather less?

5.

Perhaps the most striking omission is that the despatch does not

really seek to see the problem through Chinese eyes or to analyse why the Chinese adopted the position they did. What pressures may

there have been on Chinese leaders? To what extent will they

remain? Is there any opposition to what has been done? These

questions are not wholly academic, since they may have a bearing on what happens in the future.

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