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not be realistic to expect his successors to enjoy his authority and, once he has gone, there may have to be greater trimming to meet the views of both ideological and bureaucratic opponents. But if the general direction can be maintained, and success in the individual reforms now under way would greatly strengthen
this possibility, the Chinese people can look forward to a far more prosperous and stable future than seemed likely six years
ago.
B
4.
Economic
China's National Income (net output value of industry, agriculture, construction, transport and Commerce) grew by 9% in 1983. Premier Zhao has predicted growth of 12.5 % in 1984. Early
prediction for this year's grain harvest is for 400 million tonnes. This compared with 300 million tonnes in 1978. Another bumper
cotton harvest is also predicted. Gross industrial output value
is likely to grow by 12-13%. As in the past, however, growth in the energy and transport sectors is lagging well behind overall
growth (these two sectors may record growth of 6-8 %).
remain the priority areas for development.
These
5. The leadership's agriculture policies have been extremely successful. China can now adequately feed and clothe her people. Land, formerly farmed collectively, is now generally contracted
out to individual households for 15 years in the case of crop land
and 30-50 years in the case of pastures and forests. Peasants may
hire labour and are free to consume or market all of their production surplus to what they contract to produce for the state. Specialised production is now being encouraged, as is the accumulation of land for mechanised farming in the hands of the more successful farmers.
While land may not be sold it can be transferred for a proportion of the crops raised during the contract period. With labour thus being released from the land, many rural industries are springing up. The policy of the Government is to absorb this labour in the growing rural towns rather than allowing influxed into China's
cities.
These agricultural policies are popular and it is hard
to see a future leadership being able to reverse them to any
significant extent.
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16.
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