TNAG-1338-FCO40-1770-Visit-by-Margaret-Thatcher--UK-Prime-Minister--to-Beijing-fo-1984 — Page 260

GR 250

CONFIDENTIAL

FUTURE EGRET

DESKBY 0509OOZ

FM HONG KONG 050715Z NOV 84

CONFIDENTIAL

ник040157

RECEIVED IN REGISTRY

OSNOV 1984

DESK OFFICER

RE

Action Taken

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELEGRAM NUMBER 3373 OF 5 NOVEMBER

INDEX

INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING

PA

л

19

YOUR TELNO 2171: FUTURE EGRET: PRIME MINISTER'S VISIT.

1. I AGREE THAT THERE IS A RISK THAT AN ANNOUNCEMENT NOW OF THE

PRIME MINISTER'S INTENTION TO GO TO PEKING TO SIGN THE AGREEMENT WOULD REINFORCE LOCAL SCEPTICISM ABOUT THE ASSESSMENT EXERCISE. FOR THAT REASON I SHOULD PREFER A RATHER LATER ANNOUNCEMENT.

2. I DO NOT HOWEVER FEEL STRONGLY. BY THE TIME THE STATEMENT IS

MADE THE ASSESSMENT EXERCISE WILL HAVE ONLY ANOTHER NINE DAYS TO RUN. THE LEGISLATIVE COUNCIL, THE URBAN COUNCIL, THE DISTRICT BOARDS AND MOST OF THE MAJOR ORGANISATIONS HAVE ALREADY PUBLICLY INDICATED APPROVAL OF THE AGREEMENT SO THE ARGUMENT THAT THE PRIME MINISTER IS ANTICIPATING THE OUTCOME OF THE ASSESSMENT WOULD HAVE

LESS FORCE. MOREOVER, THERE IS NOW A GENERAL EXPECTATION THAT THE PRIME MINISTER WILL GO TO PEKING AS A RESULT OF PRESS

SPECULATION LOCALLY AND IN LONDON. THE STATEMENT WOULD THEREFORE

DO MORE THAN PROVIDE CONFIRMATION.

See(22)1 NO

3. THE ABOVE RELATES ONLY TO THE TIMING OF AN ANNOUNCEMENT. ON

THE SUBSTANCE, I HAVE NO DOUBT THAT THE PRIME MINISTER'S DECISION

TO GO TO PEKING WILL BE GENERALLY WELCOMED HERE, NOT ONLY BECAUSE IT WILL DEMONSTRATE HMG'S COMMITMENT TO THE AGREEMENT, BUT ALSO BECAUSE IT WILL BE SEEN AS INCREASING THE LIKELIHOOD (THROUGH SIGNATURE BY HER CHINESE COUNTERPART) THAT THE CHINESE WILL FULFILL THEIR OBLIGATIONS.

YOUDE

FUTURE EGRET

LIMITED

HD/HKD HD/FED

MR BOYD

COPIES TO:- SIR P CRADOCK

MR BURROWS LEGAL ADVISERS MR FIFOOT LEGAL ADVISERS

CONFIDENTIAL

21