TNAG-1322-FCO40-1728-Future-of-Hong-Kong-opinion-polls-and-surveys-1984 — Page 224

CONFIDENTIAL

HKK 040/25

Reference

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Please see Mr Li's letter of 10 August. It is worth bearing in mind that opinions have probably changed noticeably since May/June when these two surveys were carried out.

Mr Li's criticisms of the first poll are entirely justified. The way in which the surveys were conducted by the individual members of the District Board vary considerably; so do the questions used in each case. Many of the questions are far from neutral. The numbers polled also differ widely.

2.

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The results, which must clearly be viewed with some scepticism, show the usual almost universal support for the right of Hong Kong people to be consulted on the Sino-British agreement before its publication. The respondents also display a fear of the capriciousness of Chinese policy and of the danger of personal freedoms being eroded after 1997. There is also evidence in one or two of the surveys of a desire for international guarantees for the agreement and of support for further moves towards democracy in Hong Kong. It is perhaps worth noting that one (and only one) of the surveys asked people whether they accepted China's resumption of sovereignty over and administra- tion of the territory: the response was a unanimous "yes".

4.

The second poll is altogether more convincing, although Mr Li makes valid criticisms. The vast majority of respondents supported the people's right to be consulted on the agreement on Hong Kong's future, and a significant majority of these also claimed they would vote on this issue if given the chance. It is noticeable that support for these democratic views tended to decrease among older people. Although the summary of conclusions stresses that, subject to relaxation of UK immigration laws, 66% of Hong Kong British Nationals would not emigrate to the UK, it is important to note that 33% would do so. A third of all Hong Kong's British Nationals is a considerable number of people! 72% of these claim they would do so before 1997. This obviously has implications for confidence in the post - 1997 administration. Those expressing an interest in emigrating to Australia, the USA or Canada were not asked when they intended to leave. Potential emigrés' order of preference for these countries was (1) Australia, (2) Canada, (3) USA, (4) UK.

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S J Fisher

CODE 18-77

5 September 1984

R/R+pa please 86719

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Hong Kong Department WH305

233 4475