TNAG-1322-FCO40-1728-Future-of-Hong-Kong-opinion-polls-and-surveys-1984 — Page 209

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CONFIDEN..AL

REPRESENTATIVE GOVERNMENT

6. THE NUMBER OF REGISTERED VOTERS NOW STANDS AT OVER 1.3 MILLION. THERE ARE SLIGHT INDICATIONS THAT SOME POTENTIAL CANDIDATES MAY BE RELUCTANT TO STAND AGAINST PEOPLE ENJOYING OFFICIAL CHINESE SUPPORT. NEVERTHELESS, THE NUMBER AND CALIBRE OF CANDIDATES WHO EXPRESS A WILLINGNESS TO STAND IS FOR THE TIME BEING ENCOURAGING. THE COMMUN- ISTS ARE PRESSING AHEAD WITH THEIR OWN CAMPAIGN TO PERSUADE POTENTIAL

SUPPORTERS TO REGISTER FOR 1985 DISTRICT BOARD ELECTIONS.

7. PEOPLE ARE INCREASINGLY SAYING THAT THE MOST IMPORTANT THING ABOUT ANY PROPOSED CONSTITUTIONAL CHANGE IS WHETHER PEKING WILL

ACCEPT IT.

ECONOMIC INDICATORS

8. THE ECONOMIC INDICATORS REMAIN GOOD EXPORTS HAVE CONTINUED TO GROW, AND UNEMPLOYMENT AND INFLATION TO FALL. THE HONG KONG DOLLAR HAS RECENTLY BEEN UNDER SOME PRESSURE RESULTING FROM THE STRENGTH OF THE US DOLLAR, BUT APPEARS TO HAVE WEATHERED THIS. THERE ARE SOME SIGNS OF AN UPTURN AT THE LOWER LEVELS OF THE RESIDENTIAL PROPERTY MARKET. THERE ARE INDICATIONS THAT INVESTMENT IN PLANT AND MACHINERY MAY HAVE PICKED UP SLIGHTLY. MANUFACTURERS ARE GENERALLY OPTIMISTIC ABOUT BUSINESS PROSPECTS OVER THE NEXT FEW MONTH

S

(EXCEPT OF COURSE FOR THE GARMENT MANUFACTURERS AFFECTED BY RECENT US MOVES ON TEXTILE IMPORTS).

9. IN GENERAL THEREFORE THE COMMUNITY AS A WHOLE IS SURPRISING CALM AND REALISTIC GIVEN THE IMMENSE IMPORTANCE OF THE AGREEMENT SOON TO BE ANNOUNCED FOR THEIR OWN INDIVIDUAL FUTURES AND THE FUTURE OF HONG KONG AS A WHOLE.

BUCKINGHAM PALACE

YOUDE

FUTURE OF HONG KONG

COPIES TO:-

LIMITED

HD/HKD

HD/FED

HD/PLANNING STAFF

HD/PUSD

DEP HD/PUSD

RESEARCH D (MR WALKER)

LEGAL ADVISERS (SIR J FREELAND) PS

PS/LADY YOUNG

PS/MR LUCE

PS/PUS

SIR W HARDING

SIR C TICKELL

MR GOODALL

MR DEREK THOMAS MR. BOYD

PS/LORD PRESIDENT OF THE COUNCIL PS/HOME SECRETARY

PS/CHANCELLOR OF THE EXCHEQUER

PS/LORD PRIVY SEAL

PS/SECRETARY FOR TRADE & INDUSTRY

COPIES TO:- (VIA ADR)

MR ROBERTS NEWS DEPT

MR BICKFORD LEGAL ADVISERS MR FIFOOT LEGAL ADVISERS MR POWELL NO 10 DOWNING ST.

MR INGHAM NO 10 DOWNING ST. .

MR MARTIN ASSESSMENTS STAFF CABINET OFFIC

MR CARTLEDGE CABINET OFFICE

MR COLVIN

CABINET OFFICE

PS/S OF S FOR DEFENCE

PS/ATTORNEY GENERAL

SIR P CRADOCK ROOM K195

SIR P CRADOCK NO 10 DOWNING ST. SIRE YOUDE (ROOM KIA5A)

CONFIDENTIAL