TNAG-1321-FCO40-1727-Future-of-Hong-Kong-opinion-polls-and-surveys-1984 — Page 204

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PRESSURE GROUP REPRESENTATIVES' VISIT TO LONDON: OPINION POLLS

1. Please see Mr Lang's letter of 28 April and

Mr Forester-Bennett's minute of 4 May. Mr Clift will wish to see these papers before his meeting next week with Dr Ding and his delegation.

2. Mr Forester-Bennett's conclusions involve the use of weighted averages of the reples given by the respondents in the Sham Shui Po East and West surveys. I confess not to be au fait with these and have drawn the following conclusions of my own:

3. The surveys were conducted in what I believe is essentially a working class area of Hong Kong. This is reflected in the large number of "blue collar" respondents most of whom have been educated only to primary school level. Hong Kong have not yet had the time to carry out any assessment of the reliability of the findings (which they usually do for opinion polls) but we should bear in mind that those responding to the questionnaire represent only a small proportion of the residents in each area.

4. Bearing in mind the foregoing, it seems clear that those questioned:

(a) favour overwhelmingly the concept of "Hong Kong people

governing Hong Kong" (question one);

(b) envisage that within this concept, EXCO and LEGCO

members should be chosen by democratic election, either complete or partial (question three);

(c) believe that the Chief Executive of the Hong Kong

Government after 1997 should be chosen by democratic election (question four);

(d) are deeply concerned about:

(i) China intervening in the internal

affairs of Hong Kong;

(ii) lack of judicial independence in

Hong Kong in the future;

(iii) drastic changes in the future

economic structures of Hong Kong;

(iv) possible deprivation of their

personal freedoms.

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(ii) and (iv) above seem to be linked. It is noteworthy also that respondents were not asked to list their worries

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