TNAG-1320-FCO40-1726-Future-of-Hong-Kong-assessment-of-public-opinion-1984 — Page 18

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CONFIDENTIAL

CONFIDENTIAL

FM HONG KONG 220745Z FEB 84

TO IMMEDIATE FCO

TELEGRAM NUMBER 487 OF 22 FEBRUARY 1984

INFO IMMEDIATE PEKING

FUTURE OF HONG KONG: ASSESSMENT OF PUBLIC OPINION

+KK040

REVLIVED IN AEGIS

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FOLLOWING IS OUR FEBRUARY ASSESSMENT, AS PROMISED IN HADDON-CAVE 'S LETTER TO CLIFT OF 23 JANUARY. YOU WILL UNDERSTAND THAT IT IS A HIGHLY SUBJECTIVE EXERCISE AND WE WOULD NOT WISH IT TO BE TAKEN AS NECESSARILY DEFINITIVE. WE SHALL UPDATE IT MONTHLY. GENERAL

1. MORE AND MORE THINKING PEOPLE NOW CONSIDER IT INEVITABLE THAT ONLY POSSIBLE BASIS FOR A SOLUTION IS THE RESUMPTION OF SOVEREIGNTY AND ADMINISTRATIVE CONTROL OVER HONG KONG BY CHINA IN 1997. THIS

IS FOR THE MOST PART A CONCLUSION TO WHICH PEOPLE ARE RESIGNED IN THE FACE OF THE PRESSURE OF CHINESE STATEMENTS, RATHER THAN THE RESULT OF ANY GREAT FAITH IN THE CHINESE PLAN. BUT CHINESE GOVER-

NMENT REPRESENTATIVES IN HONG KONG ARE WORKING VERY HARD TO REASSURE

HONG KONG PEOPLE THAT THIS NEED NOT DAMAGE THEIR LONG-TERM INTERESTS.

THE NCNA ARE ACTIVELY CULTIVATING LEADING MEMBERS OF THE CHINESE COMMUNITY, REGARDLESS OF THEIR POLITICAL LEANINGS, AND ASSUR ING THEM THAT CHINA WISHES HONG KONG TO REMAIN STABLE AND PROSPEROUS,

AND WILL ALLOW A HIGH DEGREE OF ADMINISTRATIVE AUTONOMY ONCE FORMAL

LINKS WITH BRITAIN HAVE DISAPPEARED. THE CHINESE MESSAGE INCREASING-

LY CARRIES THE IMPLICATION THAT THE BRITISH ARE CONCERNED MAINLY

TO PROTECT THEIR OWN INTERESTS: AND THAT FOLLOWING SEPTEMBER 1984 IMPORTANT AND DETAILED DISCUSSIONS ABOUT THE FUTURE WILL LARGELY BE BETWEEN PEKING AND THE HONG KONG CHINESE. (XU JIANTUN, DIRECTOR OF THE NCNA, SAID ON 16 FEBRUARY THAT CHINA WANTED HONG KONG PEOPLE

TO CONTRIBUTE TO DISCUSSIONS ON HONG KONG'S FUTURE. QUOTE I AM WILLING TO CONTACT EVERYBODY WHO IS WILLING TO CONTACT ME. UNQUOTE)

2. PEOPLE ARE INCREASINGLY PERPLEXED BY OUR OWN FAILURE TO COMMENT

PUBLICLY ON THIS BARRAGE OF PROPAGANDA FROM PEKING. MOST THOUGHTFUL PEOPLE HERE HAVE PROBABLY CONCLUDED THAT THE BRITISH GOVERNMENT HAVE CONCEDED PEKING'S PRINCIPAL REQUIREMENTS ON SOVEREIGNTY AND ADMINISTRATION. THEY HAVE BEEN ENCOURAGED IN THIS BELIEF BY ARTICLES APPEARING IN THE BRITISH PRESS, NOTABLY THAT BY MURRAY

SAYLE IN THE SUNDAY TIMES ON 23 JANUARY.

3. VERY FEW PEOPLE, AT LEAST AT SENIOR LEVELS, PLACE MUCH CON- FIDENCE IN THE LONG-TERM VALUE OF CHINA'S ASSURANCES: AND MANY WHO CAN AFFORD IT ARE QUIETLY MAKING PLANS TO HAVE A PLACE TO

WHICH THEY CAN EMIGRATE IN A FEW YEARS' TIME. BUT THEY PLAN TO REMAIN IN HONG KONG FOR THE TIME BEING FOR THEY DISLIKE THE IDEA OF LEAVING AND ARE CONFIDENT THAT PROF ITS CAN STILL BE MADE OVER THE NEXT FEW YEARS. OTHERS ARE SENDING THEIR CHILDREN OVERSEAS FOR EDUCATION IN THE HOPE THAT THEIR CHILDREN MAY SETTLE THERE AND BE JOINED BY THEIR PARENTS LATER. THIS PERHAPS EXPLAINS WHY POLITICAL UNCERTAINTY DOES NOT AT PRESENT SEEM TO AFFECT THE

IMMEDIATE ECONOMIC OUTLOOK (SEE PARAS 7-11 BELOW).

CONFIDENTIAL

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