TNAG-1317-FCO40-1720-Future-of-Hong-Kong-meetings-of-the-Cabinet-Defence-and-Over-1984 — Page 131

SECRET

views of Hong Kong people, the stronger Chinese opposition is likely to be. The Chinese have moreover specifically ruled out

a referendum.

British requirements and the Chinese attitude

They believe that there is

11. To secure Parliamentary approval for any agreement we reach with

the Chinese we must be able to demonstrate that it is acceptable to the people of Hong Kong. This will be politically hazardous. Given a free choice the majority of people in Hong Kong would choose the

continuation of British administration. They remain intensely

suspicious of the good faith of Peking.

no guarantee that an agreement reached in 1984 will be observed by Chinese leaders in 1997. There is thus a danger of a rejection of any agreement with the Chinese by the Hong Kong population. HMG can

scarcely co-operate with the Chinese in forcing it upon an unwilling

population. There would be no alternative to returning to the Chinese with the demand that additional requirements should be met. The Chinese have already told us that an initialled agreement will

represent their last word and that it is inconceivable that we

should not go on to signature. If this was in doubt there is a

danger that they might take steps to provoke a crisis. Moreover we have accepted, and indicated to the Chinese, that we do not expect

that an agreement could be amended between publication as an initialled draft and signature. It would indeed be most unusual for a text to be varied between these stages.

Advantages and disadvantages of each form of consultation

12. In light of these factors the advantages and disadvantages of the various options are as follows:

(a) a referendum is out of the question given Chinese opposition.

The Chinese have the means to frustrate any attempt to hold one. The Foreign Secretary has already said publicly that a referendum would present very real drawbacks. This was broadly the view expressed in the House of Commons debate on 16 May.

(b) an opinion poll overtly sponsored by the Government would be

SECRET