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conduct this consultation themselves and do not envisage any
role for the British or Hong Kong Governments. The Chinese
Government is likely therefore to oppose action by the British
or Hong Kong Governments to determine the views of Hong Kong people, they have moreover specifically ruled out a referendum;
THE BRITISH POSITION
5. We have undertaken to consult the people of Hong Kong about any agreement we reach with the Chinese. To secure parliamentary
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They
They
approval for any agreement we must be able to demonstrate that it is acceptable to the people of Hong Kong. This will be politically hazardous. Given a free choice the majority of people in Hong Kong
would choose the continuation of British administration.
remain intensely suspicious of the good faith of Peking.
believe that there is no guarantee that the same view will be taken by the Chinese leaders in 1997. There is thus a danger of a rejection of any agreement with the Chinese by the Hong Kong
population.
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HMG can scarcely co-operate with the Chinese in forcing
it upon an unwilling population. There would be no alternative to returning to the Chinese with the demand that additional requirements should be met. If HMG had already initialled agreement the Chinese would undoubtedly claim bad faith and there is a dnager
that they might take steps to provoke a crisis.
ADVANTAGES AND DISADVANTAGES OF EACH FORM OF CONSULTATION
6. In light of these factors the advantages and disadvantages of
the various options are as follows:
(a)
(b)
a referendum is out of the question given Chinese opposition.
The Chinese have the means to frustrate any attempt to hold
one;
an opinion poll overtly sponsored by the Government would be
Coverr ruled out on the same grounds. Government encouragement of
such a poll might be possible but the phrasing of questions
would be extremely difficult and the Chinese would be likely
to maintain anyway that we were behind the move;
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