TNAG-1309-FCO40-1666-Future-of-Hong-Kong-1984 — Page 99

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CONFIDENTIAL

Ukkoadi

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R J McLaren Esq CMG

Political Adviser

HONG KONG

ادشاهی

کہا

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HKD

359

Foreign and Commonwealth Office

Balk

Enter

London SW1A 2AH Jee (319

29 March 1984

Pu Mr Hoare Mr. Powell

HONG KONG TRADE FAIR: CONFERENCE ON THE FUTURE

OF HONG KONG AS A TRADING CENTRE

1.

He had

Lord Chalfont came to see me this afternoon. previously been in touch with Alan Donald about holding a further conference this year in the margins of the Hong Kong Trade Fair (17-18 October). I see from the earlier papers that Alan said he would let the Governor know about Lord Chalfont's plan but it is not clear whether or not he did so.

2.

Lord Chalfont said that the conference last year, at which the keynote speech was made by Dr Kissinger, had gone well. Following the Governor's advice it had not dealt with the future of Hong Kong. This year the conference organisers wanted a conference dealing specifically with the commercial implications of arrangements for the future of Hong Kong. It would be a business orientated meeting with little or no emphasis on political or strategic matters. He had to decide whether to accept an invitation to chair the conference.

3. I said that I would wish to consult Hong Kong before giving a considered reply. My own preliminary views were that October was bound to be a time of intense debate about the future. If one took seriously Chinese statements there were two possible scenarios: either there would be an agreement by then which would be under public discussion in Hong Kong before debate in Parliament; or there would be some form of unilateral Chinese statement which would itself lead to intense debate. One way or another, the conference he was talking about was bound to receive high publicity and to be viewed as intensely political. A better time for such a conference would be about four months later.

4. Lord Chalfont said that a postponement of a few months was not possible. The conference had to be associated with the Trade Fair to make economic sense. It was either October 1984 or October 1985. He thought the organisers would need very clear arguments if they were to be persuaded not to go ahead in October.

5. My preliminary view is that, even if a conference of this sort in October is not something we should wish to promote, it would not make sense to try to exert the sort of pressure which

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/would