TNAG-1279-FCO40-1630-Repatriation-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 9

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Cold by Ave Clift of the f

FM HONG KONG 020830Z MAY 83

IMMEDIATE

TO IMMEDIATE HONG KONG GOVERNMENT. OFFICE LONDON

TELEGRAM NUMBER 682 OF 2 MAY 1983

FOR HELEN YU FROM LEEKS

YOUR (12) IN VR/DIT

DITCHLEY CONFERENCE ON REFUGEES

HKGD

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HACK 243/5 H Ko

RECEIVED IN REGISTRY

04 MAY 1983

DESK OFFICER

INDEX

PA

R:G

NO

205/

A 615

1. WE AGREE YOU SHOULD JOING GROUP B, IF POSSIBLE. THE LINE IN PREVIOUS GUIDANCE TELEGRAMS REMAINS THE ONE TO TAKE. UP-DATED STATISTICS AS FOLLOWS

(AS AT 1 MAY):~

(A) HK VR POPULATION 12,302, HIGHEST IN REGION AND ABOUT 30 PER CENT OF REGIONAL TOTAL.

(B) 37 PER CENT HAVE BEEN HERE 2 YEARS, AND 32 PER CENT 3 YEARS.

(C) OF THIS TOTAL, 3,857 ARE IN CLOSED CENTRES.

(D) ARRIVALS SO FAR IN 1983 TOTAL 817 (64 PER CENT DOWN ON 1982 FIGURES).

BUT 550 CAME IN APRIL, INDICATING THAT OUR USUAL ARRIVAL SEASON HAS BEGUN.

(E) AS IN 1980-82, VIRTUALLY ALL NEW ARRIVALS ARE ETHNIC VIETNAMESE 43 PER CENT ARE NORTHERN, FOR WHOM RESETTLEMENT IS ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE.

(F) DEPARTURES SO FAR IN 1983 TOTAL 1,260 (79 PER CENT DOWN ON 1982 FIGURES). WE ANTICIPATE A RATE OF 260 PER MONTH (100 TO USA, 80 TO AUSTRALIA, 50 TO CANADA, 30 ELSEWHERE) FOR REST OF 1983.

2. TWO STATISTICS NOT IN RECENT TELEGRAMS:

(A) UNHCR CURRENTLY CLASSIFIES THE CURRENT HK CASELOAD AS FOLLOWS: 5 PER CENT ACCEPTED FOR RESETTLEMENT,

11 PER CENT BEING CONSIDERED, 84 PER CENT QUOTE ACTIVE UNQUOTE (1.E. CASES WHICH HAVE NOT BEEN SUBMITTED TO ANY COUNTRY, OR HAVE BEEN REJECTED AT LEAST ONCE). THUS BY UNHCR STANDARDS 84 PER CENT ARE WITHOUT TANGIBLE PROSPECT OF RESETTLEMENT.

(B) RESETTLEMENT FROM CLOSED CENTRES IS RUNNING AT ABOUT 12 PER CENT

477 HAVE LEFT THEM SINCE LAST JULY.

3. WE HAVE JUST COSTED OUR VR POLICY, AND DETAILS WILL FOLLOW SEPARATELY. IN SUMMARY, UP TO 31 JANUARY 1983 THE OVERALL COST TO HKG HAS BEEN 30 MILLION POUNDS, UNHCR HAS SPENT 11 MILLION, AND VOLUNTARY AGENCIES HAVE SPENT 4 MILLION. AT CURRENT LEVELS OUR PRESENT VR POPULATION WILL COST HKG 10 MILLION POUNDS THIS YEAR, OR, IF PREDICTED ARRIVALS ARE INCLUDED, ABOUT 17 MILLION.

4. OTHER BASIC POINTS:

:

Х

(A) CLOSED CENTRE CONDITIONS ARE HUMANE AND ADEQUATE (DESCRIBED IN MY TELNO 402 TO FCO OF 24 MARCH).

(B) HONG KONG HAS NO CHOICE BUT TO STAND BY ITS POLICY TO DISCOURAGE NEW ARRIVALS, AND WILL DO SO, DESPITE THE COST IN LAND AND RESOURCES. AT LEAST ONE, AND PROBABLY TWO, NEW CENTRES WILL BE NEEDED THIS YEAR. HOWEVER, THIS CANNOT CONTINUE INDEFINITELY, AND IF ARRIVALS CONTINUE TO RISE AND DEPARTURES TO FALL THE FEW OTHER OPTIONS OPEN TO HKG, INCLUDING REPATRIATION, WILL HAVE TO BE RECONSIDERED.

5. YOU SHOULD ALSO KNOW:

(A) IN ADDITION TO PREDICTED DEPARTURES, USA IS REVIEVING SOME OLD REFUSAL CASES (WITHOUT COMMITMENT). WE ARE PLAYING THIS RIGHT DOWN, BUT ARE OPTIMISTIC THAT IT WILL RAISE US DEPARTURE RATE SLIGHTLY OVER NEXT 6 MONTHS.

(B) STUMPF HAS BEEN TOLD HE HAS BEEN INVITED AS A WEST GERMAN PARTICIPANT, AND NOT AS HKG'S OFFICIAL REPRESENTATIVE. HE WILL PROBABLY FORGET THIS ONCE AT DITCHLEY. HE IS CURRENTLY INVOLVED WITH OUR VRS IN 2 WAYS: HE HELPS MANAGE KAI TAK OPEN CENTRE, AND HE PLANS TO VISIT SOUTH AMERICA THIS SUMMER TO PROMOTE VR RESETTLEMENT. WE HAVE ADVISED BRITISH POSTS, AND SOUGHT THEIR VIEWS. WE ARE NOT OPTIMISTIC OF STUMPF'S SUCCESS, WITH FRENCH GUTANA IN MIND, BUT WOULD NOT STOP HIM GOING.

YOUDE

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