IF HIS CASE WAS CONVINCING HE WOULD BE HANDED OVER TO UNHCR AS A REFUGEE. BOTH WE AND AMERICANS ESTIMATE THAT 10-20 PER CENT OF OUR ARRIVALS MIGHT FALL INTO THIS CATEGORY. C) THESE ARRANGEMENTS WOULD BE INTRODUCED FROM A CERTAIN DATE, AND WOULD NOT APPLY RETROSPECTIVELY TO OUR CASELOAD ALREADY HERE. OUR AIM WOULD BE TO CLOSE THE DOOR, AND TO REDUCE THE FUTURE CASELOAD BY DETERRING ARRIVALS. WE WOULD GIVE IT MAXIMUM PUBLICITY.
WE WOULD THEN HOPE THAT THE PRESENT CASELOAD WOULD BE REDUCED
BY ONCE-FOR-ALL RESETTLEMENT INITIATIVES.
5. WE HAVE DISCUSSED THESE PROPOSALS WITH HMA HANOI. HE SAW THE
TWO CRUCIAL POINTS AS VIETNAMESE READINESS TO ACCEPT RETURNED
IMMIGRANTS
-
AS YOU SAY (PARAGRAPH 1(A) OF YOUR TELNO 40) UNLIKELY
AND THE NATURE OF THE PUNISHMENT WHICH THE VIETNAMESE MIGHT APPLY
IF THEY CHANGED THEIR MINDS AND AGREED TO CO-OPERATE. HE ALSO
REITERATED THE POINTS IN PARAGRAPHS 5 AND 6 OF TEL UNDER REF.
6. IN THE LIGHT OF KNOWN, AND ASSUMED, VIETNAMESE ATTITUDES, AND THE LIKELIHOOD THAT ANY ASSURANCES THE VIETNAMESE GAVE US WOULD
LACK CREDIBILITY, WE MUST FACE UP TO THE FACT THAT, IF THE PROPOSALS ABOVE WERE TO BE APPLIED, WE WOULD HAVE TO BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT THAT SOME OF THE REPRIATES MIGHT RECEIVE HARSH TREATMENT.
BUT THE ALTERNATIVE PERSISTING WITH OUR CURRENT POLICIES IS
-
NO LONGER ACCEPTABLE.
7. AGAINST THIS BACKGROUND, HM AMBASSADOR HANOI, WAS PREPARED TO
PROBE VIETNAMESE ATTITUDES IN AN EFFORT TO ESTABLISH WHETHER THEY
WOULD IN FACT BE PREPARED TO ACCEPT RETURNED IMMIGRANTS AND WHAT SCALE OF PUNISHMENT THEY WERE CONTEMPLATING. WHILE ANY ASSURANCES THE VIETNAMESE GAVE WOULD, OF COURSE, NEED TO BE LOOKED AT IN DETAIL BEFORE WE TOOK MATTERS FURTHER, THIS MIGHT GIVE US A FIRMER POINTER THAN WE POSSESS AT PRESENT TO VIETNAMESE THINKING. IE ASSURANCES WERE PATENTLY INADEQUATE, OR DEMANDS ON HMG FOR A
QUID PRO EXORBITANT, WE WOULD THEN AT LEAST HAVE AN ANSWER FOR THE AMERICANS.
8. TO SUM UP, WE WANT TO TRY TO OBTAIN SUFFICIENT CO-OPERATION FROM THE VIETNAMESE, TO ENABLE US TO TREAT INCOMING 'ECONOMIC IMMIGRANTS'' IN PRECISELY THE SAME WAY AS WE NOW TREAT ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS FROM CHINA. WE BELIEVE THAT SUCH A POLICY COULD BE PUBLICLY JUSTIFIED AS REASONABLE IN THE LIGHT OF HONG KONG'S CIRCUMSTANCES.
9. WE SHOULD THEREFORE BE GRATEFUL IF HMA HANOI COULD BE INSTRUCTED TO PROCEED ON THE BASIS PROPOSED.
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