TNAG-1279-FCO40-1630-Repatriation-of-Vietnamese-refugees-from-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 48

CONFIDENTIAL

Perence

Mr Smith HKGD

WH 312

VIETNAMESE REFUGEES IN HONG KONG

1. Thank you for your minute of 7 March.

нии 24315

MKK 243/5

RUEIVED IN REDSOING

1 1 MAR 1983

DESK OFFICEA INDEX

PA

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2. I am sure Hong Kong must allow for the possibility that arrivals in 1983 will be roughly the same number as last vear (say 7,000+) though I think it is too early to say whether or not the closed camp policy (or stricter Vietnamese surveillance) will have an effect on arrivals. It is interesting that while last summer's monthly arrival figures were up on 1981, the recent December, January and February figures are all markedly down on a year ago.

3.

Similarly, predictions of resettlement totals seem to be (reasonly perhaps) on a worst case basis. The US may in the end take more than 100 per month (incidentally it seems perverse as well as impertinent of them to suggest that they will only take more if Hong Kong 'closes the door'. If the door cannot properly be closed they should consider agreeing to take more: the 1979 arrangement was that regional states would provide first asvlum if resettlement states resettled). We know from this afternoon's meeting with the Australians that they are planning to take more than last year. Furthermore if regional arrivals fall again this year it would allow the normal resettlement states to take an increase

as last year from Hong Kong especially if -

arrivals there remain at 1981 and 1982 levels.

-

4. As you know from my minute of yesterday it seems to me that projections - realistic as they may be of a growth of sav 5,000 in Hong Kong's refugee nonulation do not justify (and could not be presented as justifying) a radical change in our whole attitude to boat-people (regardless of the procedural problems). Bv the latter part of the year the picture may well not look so bleak, particularly if regional arrival totals are down again and resettlement countries can be persuaded to take more from Hong Kong.

5. If, on the other hand, regional arrivals remain at 1982 levels then I think the whole region's, and UNHCR's, nolicv is going to have to be reshaped with preferably - UNHCR taking the lead which is properly theirs.

—

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CODE 18-77

SS 8/78

9' March 1983

CC

M. Godfrey

CONFIDENTIAL

V.N.D.

ہاتا

CMJ Segar

South East Asian Department 233 5073

TA 86A