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The Future
14.
It is now becoming increasingly difficult to predict the rate of resettlement. There are only four major ongoing resettlement programmes: US, Canada, Australia and France; but with stricter criteria now in force it is not possible to predict how many refugees will qualify for these programmes. The present estimate is that about 350 refugees will be leaving Hong Kong in the month of April. In addition, there are other programmes limited to accepting refugees for family reunion or to refugees rescued at sea by vessels flying the flags of, or owned by, traditional maritime countries.
15.
It is equally difficult to estimate the rate of arrival and much depends on the effect the new closed centre policy will have on would-be departures from Vietnam. Based on arrival figures over the past 2 years, it is estimated that there will be 2,250 arrivals in the next three months against 950 departures, and that 13,500 refugees will be awaiting resettlement in Hong Kong at the end of June 1983..
in:
Security Branch Government Secretariat
11 April 1983
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