TNAG-1274-FCO40-1624-Vietnamese-refugees-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 51

CONFIDENTIAL

have so far been limited to a small number of elderly people or

minors who could claim to have been misled. the Vietnamese have

argued that painless repatriation (either forced or voluntary) will merely encourage more people to 'try their luck' by boat knowning

they can make a fresh start in Vietnam if they fail. However, if

closed camps and slow resettlement continue, the risks of the boat

journey its lef should become increasingly unattracative, and

attempts to encourage voluntary repatriation could enable more boat

people to return home from Hong Kong without provoking a new spate

of departures.

15. The Americans and Australians in particular seem increasingly

prepared to put pressure on the Vietnamese to accept back those who have left illegally. In accordance with their standard policy, the

UNHCR too see voluntary repatriation as the best durable solution to the problem. Given that stopping the outflow is the only long-term method of relieving Hong Kong of its burden, we should do all we can

to encourage the development of a consensus among the international

community on this issue.

16. In practice, voluntary repatriation has not hitherto been

attractive to boat people arriving in Hong Kong and only 14 cases

have been processed since 1978. It is not clear, however, how far

this is caused by the hostile attitude of the Vietnamese towards

boat people. If this were to change, the idea of returning to Vietnam might seem less unattractive particularly in the light of diminishing resettlement prospects.

17. The implication of the approach now proposed is that Hong Kong and other places of first asylum would probably be left for some years with roughly the same number of refugees as they now have while efforts are put in hand to stem the outflow from Vietnam. They will not be happy with this prospect, and the refugees may possibly become an increasing political domestic issue, especially if large sums of money have to continue to be allocated for the operation of the closed camps. But Hong Kong might go along with

the idea if they felt that there was little alternative, that HMG and other countries were genuinely committed to finding a solution

to the problem and that eventually steps would definitely be taken