4. The main reasons for the lower rate of off-take are a degree of "compassion fatigue" among resettlement countries as the initial impetus of the 1979 Geneva Conference wears off, and a widespread belief that those leaving Vietnam are now for the most part economic migrants seeking better prospects elsewhere rather than refugees fleeing persecution. It has become increasingly apparent that there is little prospect of Hong Kong's refugee population being quickly
resettled elsewhere. The US and Australian view is that
resettlement status could only justify offering extra places if HMG
were to accept a further quota. There is also a general feeling emerging among resettlement countries and UNHCR officials that to continue to accept large quotas of boat people is counter-productive, because it does nothing to deter others from setting out, and may if anything encourage them.
They
5. The Vietnamese Government is unlikely to resume the sort of
forced exodus of boat people which took place in 1978 to 1980. now appear to accept that this has severely damaged their international standing, and indeed they now blame the continuing
exodus on a Chinese/American sabotage plot. But it remains very
difficult to predict when the outflow might decline to a negligible
level. The restrictive economic measures introduced in Vietnam
early last summer, including stiff increases in taxation on private business, may yet produce an upturn in 'illegal' departures (which
take a number of months ot save for and arrange). Moreover, there
are still about 500,000 ethnic Chinese in the vicinity of Ho Chi
Minh City alone, many of whom could at some stage decide to flee by
boat if domestic or economic policies changed radically.
6. Most of those now fleeing Vietnam by boat would not be candidates for the Orderly Departure Programme, or if they were might be refused exit visas by the Vietnamese authorities. Nevertheless the existence of the programme will remain one of the
major restraints on any further large scale flight by sea. So far this year the programme has been significantly accelerated with more UNHCR and local staff and more funds from receiving states.
In the first nine months of 1983 departures for the UK have been
running at twice the level of the previous best year; and in
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