CORRUPTION AT THE LOCAL LEVEL CONTINUES. ARRIVALS USUALLY REACH THEIR PEAK DURING THE SUMMER MONTHS, AND 1983 LOOKS LIKELY TO FOLLOW THIS PATTERN. AFTER 103 ARRIVALS IN MARCH, WE HAD 549 IN APRIL AND 577 IN MAY. ON THIS BASIS WE MAY EXPECT BETWEEN 2,000 AND 3,000 OVER THE NEXT 4 MONTHS.
DEPARTURE
RESETTLEMENT FROM HONG KONG HAS FALLEN DRAMATICALLY FROM 37,468 IN 1980 AND 17,818 IN 1981 TO 9,247 IN 1982, GIVING AN AVERAGE OF 770 PER MONTH IN 1982. THE FIGURE HAS DROPPED TO ONLY 300 PER MONTH IN 1983 AS A RESULT OF THE REDUCTION IN THE US AND CANADIAN QUOTAS. MONTHLY RESETTLEMENT IN 1982 FELL STEADILY FROM 1,838 IN JANUARY TO 185 IN NOVEMBER. OPEN SQUARE BRACKETS BY WAY OF BACKGROUND, THE MAIN REASON IS THAT SINCE APRIL 1982 THE USA HAS APPLIED TIGHTER IMMIGRATION CRITERIA FOR ADMISSION OF INDU- CHINESE REFUGEES. THIS INCLUDES REJECTION OF THOSE WHO DO NOT MEET THE US DEFINITION OF REFUGEE AND EVEN THOSE WITHIN THIS DEFINITION WILL NOT BE ACCEPTED UNLESS THEY HAVE CLOSE RELATIVES
IN THE USA OR HAVE BEEN PREVIOUSLY ASSOCIATED WITH THE US GOVERN- MENT. SINCE THE INTRODUCTION OF THESE NEW CRITERIA, THE OFFTAKE TO USA, THE MAIN RESETTLEMENT COUNTRY FOR HONG KONG VIETNAMESE REFUGEES, HAS BEEN REDUCED DRAMATICALLY FROM 1,498 IN JANUARY 1982 TO 109 IN DECEMBER 1982. US OFFICIALS NOW ESTIMATE THAT THEY WILL
IN FUTURE ACCEPT LESS THAN 10 PER CENT OF ALL NEW ARRIVALS IN
HONG KONG. THE CANADIANS AND FRENCH ARE ALSO CUTTING BACK ON THEIR PROGRAMMES. CANADA TOOK 2,000 IN 1981, 1,000 IN 1982 AND PROJECTS
ONLY 420 IN 1983. ONE PARTICULARLY DIFFICULT POINT IN THE CONTEXT
OF THESE DIMINISHING RESETTLEMENT OPPORTUNITIES IS THAT HMG HAS
DECIDED TO TAKE NO MORE REFUGEES, OTHER THAN SHIP RESCUE CASES)
CLOSE SQUARE BRACKETS
HONG KONG'S POSITION
anal,
a fames
HODPcases
WE CANNOT BE EXPECTED TO TAKE MORE VRS UNLESS RESETTLEMENT PROSPECTS
IMPROVE, FOR THE FOLLOWING REASONS:
(A) HONG KONG IS ALREADY ONE OF THE MOST DENSELY POPULATED
TERRITORIES IN THE WORLD:
(B) HONG KONG HAS REDUCED ITS OWN NATURAL POPULATION GROWTH TO CLOSE TO UNITY (1.2 PER CENT IN 1981) DESPITE A YOUNG POPULATION,
A LOW DEATH RATE AND A HIGH EXPECTATION OF LIFE. BUT TOTAL GROWTH
WAS 2 PER CENT IN 1982 AND AS HIGH AS 6.4 PER CENT IN 1979 AS A
RESULT OF IMMIGRATION FROM CHINA. THERE IS NOW SOME PROSPECT OF A
REDUCTION IN THIS FORM OF IMMIGRATION BUT WE STILL HAVE ABOUT 27,000 A YEAR FROM CHINA, WHICH INCREASES NATURAL GROWTH RATE BY
HALF:
(C) WITH THE AGREEMENT OF CHINA WE ARE RETURNING VIRTUALLY ALL ILLEGAL IMMIGRANTS AND OVERSTAYING VISITORS FROM THAT COUNTRY.
CONFIDENTIAL
/OPEN
No comments yet.
Private notes are available after approval.