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CONFIDENTAL
B) BUT THE TENDENCY FOR OTHERS TO FOLLOW THE AMERICANS COULD CAUSE US SERIOUS PROBLEMS NEXT YEAR. SIMINGTON CAUTIONED THAT
THE MAIN US RESETTLEMENT EFFORT IN 1984 MAY BE FURTHER DIVERTED
FROM VIETNAMESE TO THE KHMERS IN THAILAND. WE SHOULD DO AS MUCH
AS WE CAN TO HEAD OFF SUCH A US DIVERSION.
C) AS REGARDS CANADA, SIMINGTON FELT THE RESETTLEMENT PICTURE WAS BLEAK, AND HE WAS NOT OPTIMISTIC OF ANY INCREASE IN OTTAWA'S
CURRENT OFFTAKE.
D) HE THOUGHT THAT FRENCH STATEMENTS ON THEIR SEVERE ACCOMMODATION PROBLEMS SHOULD NOT BE TAKEN AT FACE VALUE. THE FRENCH OFFTAKE
FROM HERE IS NOW IN PRACTICE LIMITED TO SHIP RESCUES. BUT SIMINGTON BELIEVED THE FRENCH MIGHT BE PERSUADED TO TAKE MORE IF SUITABLE
PRESSURE WAS APPLIED.
E) THE AUSTRALIANS HAVE TAKEN MORE THIS YEAR THAN LAST. IN SIMINGTON'S VIEW THIS RATE WILL NOT BE MAINTAINED UNLESS PRESSURE IS KEPT UP ON THEM AND THE US GIVES THE RIGHT LEAD.
4. FINALLY, IN SUPPORT OF OUR PREDICTION THAT OUR VR BURDEN WILL INCREASE THIS SUMMER, ARRIVALS HAVE PICKED UP SIGNIFICANTLY SINCE
1 APRIL:
<<
A) IN JANUARY MARCH 1983 OUR 267 ARRIVALS WERE 82 PER CENT
DOWN ON THE SAME PERIOD IN 1982:
B) LAST MONTH OUR 550 WERE ONLY 20 PER CENT DOWN ON APRIL 1982:
871315
C) WE HAVE HAD 185 THIS MONTH, ALL IN THE LAST FOUR DAYS. LAST
MAY WE HAD 938.
YOUDE
BOAT PEOPLE
LIMITED
SEAD
HK & GD
UND
FED
PUSD
NEWS D MAED
PS
ADDITIONAL DISTRIBUTION
PS/LORD BELSTEAD PS/PUS
BOAT PEOPLE
MR WRIGHT
MR GIFFARD
MR DONALD MR ADAMS MR URE
2
CONFIDENTAL
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