TNAG-1270-FCO40-1620-Financial-policy-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 245

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5. THROUGHOUT THE PAST YEAR THE GOVERNMENT, THROUGH THE EXCHANGE FUND, HAS SOUGHT TO SMOOTH ERRATIC AND WAYWARD SHIFTS IN THE

EXCHANGE RATE. THERE HAS BEEN SUBSTANTIAL DIRECT INTERVENTION IN THE

FOREIGN EXCHANGE MARKETS IN HONG KONG AND SOMETIMES IN LONDON AND

NEW YORK. THE EXCHANGE FUND HAS ALSO BEEN ACTIVELY BORROWING IN

THE INTERBANK MONEY MARKET IN ORDER TO DRIVE UP MONEY MARKET

INTEREST RATES. DESPITE UNDESIRABLE SIDE EFFECTS (E.G. ON THE PROPERTY MARKET AND MANUFACTURING COSTS), THE HONG KONG ASSOCIATIÔN

OF BANKS HAS RAISED DEPOSIT INTEREST RATES ON A NUMBER OF OCCASIONS

IN ORDER TO MAKE THE HOLDING OF HONG KONG DOLLARS MORE ATTRACTIVE

AND TO PUSH UP LENDING RATES (MAKING IT MORE EXPENSIVE FOR

EXPORTERS TO BORROW HONG KONG DOLLARS TO MEET THEIR LOCAL LIABILITIES

INSTEAD OF REPATRIATING THEIR FOREIGN CURRENCY EARNINGS). BUT

THESE EFFORTS HAVE ONLY HAD A LIMITED EFFECT. AT BEST, THE RATE

OF DEPRECIATION HAS BEEN SLOWED DOWN. THE DEMAND FOR FOREIGN CURRENCIES TO HOLD (MOSTLY U.S. DOLLARS) HAS REMAINED STRONG, AND THERE HAS BEEN AN ABSENCE OF TWO-WAY TRADING. IN OTHER WORDS,

SENTIMENT IN THE MARKET HAS BEEN PERSISTENTLY AGAINST THE DOMESTIC

"CURRENCY: DRAMATICALLY SO OVER THE FAST WEEK.

6. IT COULD BE ARGUED THAT UP TO LAST WEEK WE HAD EXPERIENCED NOTHING WORSE THAN A SERIES OF SLIPS AND THE WIDE SPREADS QUOTED FROM TIME TO TIME HAVE BEEN INDICATIVE OF A VERY THIN, ARTIFICIAL MARKET. ALSO, ALTHOUGH WE HAVE BEEN PRESSURISED FROM TIME TO TIME TO ''ACT' TO ''SAVE THE DOLLAR'' AND PROTECT THE PEOPLE'S LIVELIHOOD, ETC., THERE HAS BEEN A RELUCTANT PUBLIC ACCEPTANCE THAT MARKET FORCES ARE INEXORABLE. HOWEVER, THIS HAS BEEN COMBINED WITH SOME BEWILDERMENT AND RESTLESSNESS ABOUT OUR PASSIVE PUBLIC RELATIONS STANCE IN RELATION TO THE NEGOTIATIONS IN THE FACE OF THE COMMUNIST CAMPAIGN, BUT WAS UNTIL LAST WEEK, CONTAINABLE.

7. BUT BY YESTERDAY (SUNDAY) WE HAD TO CONCLUDE THAT THE PRESENT SITUATION WAS SO DIFFERENT IN DEGREE AS TO BE DIFFERENT IN KIND TO THAT WHICH WE HAD EXPERIENCED SO FAR. SO WE DECIDED ON THE FOLLOWING

MOVES IN AN ATTEMPT TO STOP REAL PANIC SETTING IN AT THE BEGINNING OF THIS WEEK:

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SSUED A STATEMENT EXPRESSING GREAT CONCERN ABOUT THE QUITE UNREASONABLE RATES BEING QUOTED FOR THE HONG KONG DOLLAR ARGUING THAT THEY WERE QUITE INCONSISTENT WITH THE UNDERLYING ECONOMIC AND POLITICAL SITUATION AND URGING PEOPLE TO IGNORE RUMOURS AND UNHELPFUL COMMENTARY (AN OBL·LQUE REFERENCE TO COMMUNIST PROPAGANDA).

THE ACTHING FINANCIAL SECRETARY SUBSEQUENTLY ISSUED A FURTHER STATEMENT HINTING AT A REVISION OF THE PRESENT ARRANGEMENTS FOR ISSUING AND REDEEMING CERTIFICATES OF

INDEBTEDNESS TO THE NOTE-ISSUING BANKS,

WHICH MIGHT HAVE A HELPFUL INFLUENCE ON THE EXCHANGE RATE, AND HE STRESSED THAT THE EXCHANGE FUND WOULD OPERATE IN THE FOREIGN EXCHANGE AND INTERBANK MONEY

MARKETS AS AND WHEN APPROPRIATE. SECRET -2-

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