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61.
Hong Kong's role as a major port for China's foreign trade is likely to continue at least in the foreseeable future, if only for geographical
reasons. Though China has a long coastline, Hong
Kong is unique in the South China area in its possession of a natural deep water harbour which can accommodate the largest ocean-going ships. On top of
this is the fact that the geographical setting of
South China is mainly made up of rugged terrain and
fast moving streams which constitute a serious
hindrance to the development of internal rail and
water transport, both of which are often more
important means of transport in developing countries than road transport. As a consequence, it is often easier to export goods produced in the South China
provinces, such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Hunan, Fujian
and Jiangxi, through Hong Kong than through, for
example, Shanghai. So to a large extent in terms of
foreign trade these provinces are more the
hinterlands of Hong Kong than the hinterlands of
Chinese ports. Port developments in China may have
the potential to challenge the position of Hong Kong as an entrepot for Chinese goods but, in order to be
effective, this has to be coupled with substantial
improvements in internal transportation between these
ports and their hinterlands and in the range and
number of shipping services offered by the ports.
Otherwise, the importance of Hong Kong, in both
absolute and relative terms, is likely to be
sustained even in the long term, unless China
resorted to a closed door economic policy as in the
1950s and 1960s.
G.F. 326
CONFIDENTIAL #2
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