TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 44

CHAPTER 5: ACTIVITY IN SELECTED SECTORS

Manufacturing

5.1

and

On the basis of the figures on

on domestic exports

(paragraph 2.1), retained imports of raw materials

semi-manufactures (paragraph 2.8) and the encouraging

quantity of electricity consumed by the manufacturing

sector, there is clear evidence of a continued recovery in

manufacturing activity in the third quarter.

5.2

According to the results of the Quarterly

(1) Business Survey conducted in July 1983, businessmen

expected exchange rate uncertainties and high material

prices to remain as

as their major problems during the third

quarter. Business orders, which were short in the first

quarter, picked up significantly in the second quarter and

were expected to remain strong in the third quarter.

order-book positions of a selection of large manufacturers included in the monthly survey on employment, payroll and

(2)

confirm this view.

orders-on-hand

The

/ 5.3 From

(1) The Quarterly Business Surveys conducted

by the Census and Statistics Department seek from respondents their impression of business conditions in

in the

the immediately preceding quarter and their opinion regarding business prospects in the forthcoming quarter. The sample used for the survey consists of some 800 firms taken from various sectors. It is a selection of the largest firms in each sector plus a random sample of medium sized firms.

(2) The sample for the monthly survey on employment, payroll and orders-on-hand has been updated as from June 1983. It now includes 200 large manufacturing companies selected on the basis of employment in March 1983, in addition to 50 largest companies in the construction and selected services sectors. Each month a

questionnaire is sent to each of these companies, requesting information on the number of persons engaged as at the end of the preceding month, on the amount of payroll for the preceding month and on orders-on-hand in terms of months as at the first day of the current month. Its purpose is to provide short term economic indicators at monthly intervals. As the survey is not based on a scientifically selected random sample, the results do not necessarily reflect the performance of the economy as a whole, but they do give some indication of the direction of change.

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