TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 358

quarter of 1982 were insufficient orders, exchange rate uncertainties and price competition; and these problems were expected to continue into the first quarter of 1983.

of 1983. But it

is encouraging to note that the order-book positions of a

selection of large manufacturers included in the latest (2) monthly survey on employment, payroll and orders-on-hand showed gradual improvements by February 1983, especially for manufacturers in the textiles and clothing industries.

5.4

Meanwhile, from factory visits, contacts with local

industrialists and administrative records, some qualitative

assessments of the present state of the manufacturing industry

can be made. First, manufacturers in general were more optimistic about export prospects in the first quarter of this

year than in the fourth quarter of 1982. Second, many

factories reported an improvement in their order-book

positions. But, third, the performance varies from industry

to industry and from factory to factory. The general impression is that textiles and clothing, and the upper end of the electronics industry (such as audio products, video games, computer and related products and telecommunication equipment) are recovering first. Food and beverages, and the printing industry also reported buoyant sales, while plastic ware, toys and watches reported a mild recovery.

/Property

(2) The monthly survey on employment, payroll and orders-on-hand includes 200 large manufacturing companies selected on the basis of employment in September 1979, in addition to a small number of construction and other non-manufacturing companies. Each month a questionnaire is sent to each of these companies, requesting information on the number of persons engaged as at the end of the preceding month, on the amount of payroll for the preceding month and on orders-on-hand in terms of months as at the first day of the current month. Its purpose is to provide short-term economic indicators at monthly intervals. As the survey is not based on a scientifically selected random sample, the results do not necessarily reflect the performance of the economy as a whole, but they do give some indication of the direction of change.

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