TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 233

CHAPTER 2: THE EXTERNAL SECTOR

Domestic exports

2.1

(1),

The value of domestic exports, at $43,160 million in

the first half of 1983, was 14% higher than in the first half

of 1982. Unit value indexes available up to May suggest that

there was an increase of about 5%

5% in prices implying a

growth rate of about 9% in real terms over this period. The

year-on-year growth rate was 38 in real terms in the first

quarter, followed by roughly 14% in the second quarter,

indicating that a recovery in the growth rate of domestic

exports was already underway.

2.2

months.

There are several indications that domestic export performance is likely to continue to improve in the coming

First, apart from reports of moderate economic

recovery in the Federal Republic of Germany and the United Kingdom, there are now more convincing signs that the economic

recovery in the United States, Hong Kong's

Hong Kong's largest market,

will be sustained throughout 1983(2). Second, the

year-on-year growth rate in real terms of retained imports of raw materials and semi-manufactures, after having been zero or

/negative

!

(1) Prices are based on unit values which do not take into account changes in the composition or quality of goods traded. Changes in real terms are derived from changes in trade values, after discounting the effect of price changes.

(2)

However, the extent to which Hong Kong's export sector may benefit from the economic recovery in the United States may be moderated by the recent decision of the US Government to suspend export authorization on eleven categories of products, all of which were previously not subject to quota control. At the time of preparing this report, agreement was reached on the restraint limits for five of these categories, restraint limits on another four were imposed by the United States, and the rest were still subject to consultation.

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