TNAG-1267-FCO40-1616-Economic-situation-in-Hong-Kong-1983 — Page 193

tertiary services

sectors

(paragraphs 4.5 to 4.9). Thus, although there was some revival in manufacturing activity and

an improvement in the underlying economic situation in the

first quarter (paragraphs 2.1, 5.1 and 5.3), the improvement

was not sufficient to result

result in a fall in the unemployment

rate

4.2

(4).

Manufacturing wage rates and construction wage rates

declined in real terms (paragraphs 4.10 and 4.12). In the

twelve months ending December 1982, salaries in the tertiary services sectors, in terms of payroll per person engaged, rose in real terms (paragraph 4.11). A more detailed up-to-date analysis of developments in the first quarter of 1983 cannot

be made until statistics on the labour force and on wage rates

for March 1983 become available in the second quarter of this

year.

The supply of and the demand for labour

4.3

The growth rate of

of the supply of labour remained slow, as the major factors affecting the growth rate of the

labour force continued to stabilize. Net immigration (balance of total arrivals and departures of legal immigrants plus an estimate of illegal immigrants) continued to decline steadily. The labour force participation rate, which is the proportion of the economically active population working or

seeking work, also declined in the

the quarter ending February 1983, after a slight increase in the quarter ending November 1982

(5)

/4.4 Although

(4)

Given increases in the labour force and in productivity, there is, at any point in time, a minimum growth in output that is required if unemployment is not to increase. Thus, unemployment may continue to rise even after output growth begins to recover, especially when there is spare productive capacity.

(5) The labour force participation rate in the quarter ending February 1983 was 63.7%, compared with 64.3% in the quarter ending November 1982.

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